The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery will be staged in Chicago on Sunday, May 10 (3 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN), setting the order for a class widely viewed as deep and potentially franchise-shifting. Headlining the group is BYU forward AJ Dybantsa, the consensus favorite to go No. 1. Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, Duke big man Cameron Boozer and North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson round out a top tier that scouts believe could alter the league’s balance for years.
Lottery Snapshot
Fourteen clubs own ping-pong-ball combinations Sunday. Below is a team-by-team look at their odds, projected selections if the board holds, and the key questions each front office must answer this summer.
Washington Wizards
No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-four odds: 52.1%
Best fit at No. 1: AJ Dybantsa, SF, BYU
Washington dropped 26 of its final 27 games yet expects to chase wins next season after acquiring Trae Young and Anthony Davis. Dybantsa would enter a roster with proven stars, lessening immediate shot-creation pressure and allowing him to lean on his defensive upside. Despite a cluster of young wings, he would instantly become the core piece of a franchise that has not posted a winning record since 2017-18. A slide to No. 5 would sting but still delivers a top guard prospect.
Indiana Pacers
No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-four odds: 52.1%
Best fit at No. 2: Darryn Peterson, PG/SG, Kansas
Peterson is regarded as a No. 1-level talent and would pair ideally with Tyrese Haliburton once the All-Star returns from a torn Achilles. Haliburton’s unselfish style could fast-track Peterson’s offensive impact, forming a backcourt with elite shooting and playmaking potential. If Indiana lands at No. 3, the choice may narrow to Wilson versus Boozer, a decision that could hinge on how Ivica Zubac fits long term. The pick is top-four protected; should it fall to No. 5 or lower, it conveys to the Clippers, giving both franchises high-stakes interest Sunday.
Brooklyn Nets
No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-four odds: 52.1%
Best fit at No. 3: Cameron Boozer, PF/C, Duke
The NBA’s youngest roster stocked five first-rounders last season and will pick no lower than seventh this year. Boozer’s blend of size, feel and playmaking would make him Brooklyn’s top option immediately, mitigating the club’s glaring point-guard need while the front office explores trades or free agency. With Houston holding swap rights to the 2027 first, Brooklyn intends to accelerate its timeline, but landing a star on lottery night is viewed internally as the most direct path back to relevance.
Utah Jazz
No. 1 pick odds: 11.5% | Top-four odds: 45.2%
Best fit at No. 4: Caleb Wilson, PF/C, North Carolina
Wilson is judged to have significant long-range upside, even if he is further from his ceiling than the rest of the consensus top four. Utah’s frontcourt already features Jaren Jackson Jr., Lauri Markkanen and restricted free agent Walker Kessler, but the Jazz plan to draft on talent first. After acquiring Jackson at the deadline, the club aims for a playoff push next season while relying on growth from youngsters Keyonte George and last year’s No. 5 pick Ace Bailey.
Sacramento Kings
No. 1 pick odds: 11.5% | Top-four odds: 45.2%
Best fit at No. 5: Darius Acuff Jr., PG, Arkansas
Head coach Doug Christie publicly targeted a point guard at exit interviews. Acuff brings elite shot-creation but questionable defense, meaning Sacramento must assemble the right support around him. With the NBA’s fourth-oldest roster, minimal trade assets and a luxury-tax bill, striking gold in this draft is critical to avoid an extended downturn.
Memphis Grizzlies
No. 1 pick odds: 9.0% | Top-four odds: 37.2%
Best fit at No. 6: Keaton Wagler, PG/SG, Illinois
The former walk-on turned Final Four star is now considered a top-five caliber prospect thanks to plus size and advanced feel. Memphis could hand him substantial on-ball minutes if it parts with Ja Morant, whose trade market will again be explored after no deal emerged at February’s deadline. The Grizzlies own additional future firsts plus pick No. 16, underscoring their draft-centric rebuild.
Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans)
No. 1 pick odds: 6.8%* | Top-four odds: 29.3%*
Best fit at No. 7: Kingston Flemings, PG, Houston
Obtained in last year’s Derik Queen deal, this pick could deliver Atlanta a high-octane lead guard to complement a young core. President Onsi Saleh said the club will not skip steps and prefers to keep both first-rounders. Roster decisions on Jonathan Kuminga (team option) and pending free agent CJ McCollum hinge in part on where this selection lands.
*Atlanta controls the better of New Orleans’ and Milwaukee’s picks; combined odds for No. 1 are 9.8%, for top-four 43.2%.
Dallas Mavericks
No. 1 pick odds: 6.7% | Top-four odds: 29.0%
Best fit at No. 8: Mikel Brown Jr., PG, Louisville
New president Masai Ujiri must build around 19-year-old forward Cooper Flagg without control of Dallas’ own first-rounders for the next four drafts. Brown’s shot-making flair and vision could evolve into Flagg’s long-term backcourt partner. The club also must weigh the trade value of Kyrie Irving once the veteran returns from ACL rehab in hopes of avoiding a two-timeline dilemma.
Chicago Bulls
No. 1 pick odds: 4.5% | Top-four odds: 20.3%
Best fit at No. 9: Brayden Burries, PG/SG, Arizona
New head of basketball operations Bryson Graham inherits a roster headed for a methodical rebuild. Burries’ flexibility next to Josh Giddey appeals, though 7-foot-2 center Aday Mara could also fill a glaring long-term need. Chicago owns pick No. 15 and all future firsts, plus cap space, but after two postseason trips in 10 seasons, patience may test the fan base.
Milwaukee Bucks
No. 1 pick odds: 0%* | Top-four odds: 13.9%*
Best fit at No. 10: Nate Ament, SF/PF, Tennessee
Milwaukee has not drafted in the lottery since 2016 and faces a franchise-defining offseason with Giannis Antetokounmpo entering the final year of his deal. New coach Taylor Jenkins needs young talent; Ament offers size and two-way potential. Finding clarity on Antetokounmpo’s future before the June 23 draft is ownership’s stated goal.
*The Bucks receive the lower of their own and New Orleans’ picks; because Atlanta can swap into the better selection, Milwaukee cannot win the lottery. Double jump odds that vault both picks into the top four are 2.6%.
Golden State Warriors
No. 1 pick odds: 2% | Top-four odds: 9.4%
Best fit at No. 11: Karim Lopez, SF/PF, New Zealand Breakers
Golden State must decide whether to maximize the twilight of Stephen Curry‘s career or pivot to youth. Lopez, a teenage forward with size, skill and pro seasoning, could satisfy both agendas. Veteran wing Yaxel Lendeborg projects as another option. Coaching uncertainty around Steve Kerr complicates the long-term roadmap.
Oklahoma City Thunder (via Clippers)
No. 1 pick odds: 1.5% | Top-four odds: 7.1%
Best fit at No. 12: Yaxel Lendeborg, PF/C, Michigan
Approaching 24, Lendeborg is older than most lottery hopefuls, but his multi-positional defense and passing suit Oklahoma City’s versatile lineups. The Thunder also hold pick No. 17 and are unlikely to roster two first-rounders, making a trade for future assets plausible. Decisions on options for Isaiah Hartenstein and Luguentz Dort headline a summer focused on sustaining a core of Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams.
Miami Heat
No. 1 pick odds: 1% | Top-four odds: 4.8%
Best fit at No. 13: Labaron Philon Jr., PG, Alabama
After falling in the play-in, Miami enters the lottery for the first time since 2019. Philon’s ability to create shots in bunches could ease heavy offensive demands on veterans. Team president Pat Riley indicated the Heat will chase upgrades, whether via trade—potentially for a superstar—or by preserving cap space for the 2027 free-agent class. Miami owes Charlotte its 2027 first (top-14 protected), turning future flexibility into an ongoing discussion.
Charlotte Hornets
No. 1 pick odds: 0.5% | Top-four odds: 2.4%
Best fit at No. 14: Aday Mara, C, Michigan
Mara, a 7-foot-2 passer with perimeter flashes, offers frontcourt playmaking that Charlotte currently lacks. The Hornets, coming off their best season in a decade, also own pick No. 18 and have embraced a gradual build around Brandon Miller, Rookie of the Year runner-up Kon Knueppel and a healthier LaMelo Ball.
The draft order will become official Sunday in Chicago, after which teams can firm up strategies ahead of the 2026 NBA Draft next month.
Source: ESPN
