With the 2026 NBA draft lottery scheduled for May 10 in Chicago, ESPN draft analyst Jeremy Woo released an updated first-round mock that places BYU freshman wing AJ Dybantsa at No. 1.
Key points
• Leaner early-entry field. Only 71 players filed early paperwork, the smallest total in more than two decades and far below last year’s 106. Executives attribute the decline to NIL money that encouraged many college standouts to stay in school.
• Heavy talent at the top. Dybantsa headlines a quartet of prospects that league personnel widely view as potential franchise pillars, followed by Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, Duke big man Cameron Boozer and North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson.
• Lottery stakes. The Wizards, Pacers, Nets and Jazz hold the four worst records and therefore the strongest mathematical chances at the No. 1 selection. Washington’s pick, top-eight-protected to New York, cannot fall below fifth after a 1-26 finish to the season.
• First-round stability. Only three players previously projected in the first round—Thomas Haugh (Florida), Braylon Mullins (UConn) and Motiejus Krivas (Arizona)—opted to withdraw, leaving the bulk of ESPN’s top 30 intact.
Top 10 projections
Woo’s current forecast, using the league’s default lottery order, lists the following first ten picks:
- Washington Wizards* – AJ Dybantsa, SF, BYU (25.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.7 APG)
- Indiana Pacers* – Darryn Peterson, PG/SG, Kansas (20.2 PPG)
- Brooklyn Nets* – Cameron Boozer, PF/C, Duke (22.5 PPG, 10.2 RPG)
- Utah Jazz* – Caleb Wilson, PF/C, North Carolina (19.8 PPG)
- Sacramento Kings* – Darius Acuff Jr., PG, Arkansas (23.5 PPG)
- Memphis Grizzlies* – Keaton Wagler, PG/SG, Illinois (17.9 PPG)
- Atlanta Hawks* (via New Orleans) – Kingston Flemings, PG, Houston (16.1 PPG)
- Dallas Mavericks* – Mikel Brown Jr., PG, Louisville (18.2 PPG)
- Chicago Bulls* – Brayden Burries, SG, Arizona (16.1 PPG)
- Milwaukee Bucks* – Nate Ament, SF/PF, Tennessee (16.7 PPG)
*Final lottery positions will be determined in the May 10 drawing.
Why Dybantsa leads
The 6-foot-8 freshman impressed scouts with elite physical tools, efficient scoring and signs of two-way potential. While no unanimous consensus exists at the very top, several front-office sources told ESPN they currently consider Dybantsa the most complete prospect in the class.
Next steps in the draft process
The lottery and NBA Draft Combine will be held in Chicago beginning May 10, marking the formal start of the predraft evaluation cycle. Underclassmen have until June 16 to withdraw and return to school. The 2026 NBA draft is set for June 25.
Teams will now focus on medical reviews, private workouts and interviews to finalize their boards in what executives believe could become one of the most consequential drafts in recent memory.
Source: ESPN.com
