The 2025-26 regular season is winding down, and while playoff hopefuls jostle for seeding, 10 franchises at the bottom of the standings are already focused on May 10, when the draft lottery will set the order for June’s talent grab. ESPN Analytics projections dated Feb. 23 outline each club’s odds at No. 1, but roster decisions made at – and after – the trade deadline will shape how every front office approaches draft night and summer business.
Sacramento Kings
Record: 13-46 | Projected: 18-64 | No. 1 odds: 13.9%
Sacramento shut down veterans Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and newcomer De’Andre Hunter for season-ending surgeries, triggering a youth push that included a franchise-record 16-game losing streak before Monday’s win in Memphis. With the league’s worst mark and its fourth-oldest payroll, Sacramento is expected to take the best player available, then worry about positional fit later. Luxury-tax pressure created by Hunter’s contract and DeMar DeRozan’s partially guaranteed $25.7 million deal could force trades of high-priced veterans this summer.
Washington Wizards
Record: 16-40 | Projected: 21-61 | No. 1 odds: 13.6%
Washington imported Trae Young and Anthony Davis in February but has yet to see either in uniform because of knee and hand injuries, respectively. Young’s max contract all but eliminates point-guard prospects such as Kingston Flemings, Darius Acuff and Mikel Brown from the Wizards’ draft board. Off-season priorities include rehab for the two stars plus contract talks: Young owns a $49 million player option, Davis becomes extension-eligible Aug. 6, and 2023 lottery pick Bilal Coulibaly can negotiate through the final day of next season.
Brooklyn Nets
Record: 15-41 | Projected: 22-60 | No. 1 odds: 13.0%
After waiving Cam Thomas, the Nets still carry the league’s lowest payroll and retained all five of their 2025 first-rounders. Rookies Egor Demin and Nolan Traore are developing without pressure while the club eyes top prospects such as Darryn Peterson or AJ Dybantsa. Cap space could reach $50 million, and Brooklyn must decide whether to extend Michael Porter Jr.’s $40.8 million expiring deal or spend on a restricted free agent like Peyton Watson, possibly coupling space with nine movable first-round picks.
Indiana Pacers
Record: 15-43 | Projected: 24-58 | No. 1 odds: 12.0%
Indiana shipped a top-four-protected 2026 first to the Clippers for Ivica Zubac, who is resting an ankle injury. If this year’s pick lands inside the top four, the Pacers could pair Tyrese Haliburton with Peterson, Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer or Caleb Wilson and still keep the future selection. Haliburton’s return, eight potential extensions (including Pascal Siakam) and only $2.8 million of breathing room below the tax line will dictate summer spending.
Utah Jazz
Record: 18-40 | Projected: 25-57 | No. 1 odds: 11.1%
Utah ended its rebuild by sending three firsts, including its 2027 own pick, for former Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. With Jackson, Lauri Markkanen and pending restricted free agent Walker Kessler fronting the lineup, the Jazz figure to seek a guard who raises their ceiling. Keyonte George’s progress and extension eligibility add intrigue. Kessler’s new deal will join Markkanen and Jackson, who already consume 68% of next season’s payroll.
Atlanta Hawks (via Pelicans)
Record: 28-31 | Projected: 40-42 | No. 1 odds: 10.1%
Atlanta flipped Luke Kennard and Kristaps Porzingis for Jock Landale, Buddy Hield and Jonathan Kuminga while also claiming the better first-round pick between New Orleans and Milwaukee. With Trae Young shipped out, a playmaking guard such as Flemings or Keaton Wagler tops the wish list. The Hawks could open $30 million in cap room by declining Kuminga’s $24.3 million option; if they keep him, a $15 million mid-level exception remains available, and front-court depth is the stated need.
Dallas Mavericks
Record: 20-36 | Projected: 31-51 | No. 1 odds: 6.9%
Dallas unloaded Anthony Davis – acquired last year in the fallout from trading Luka Doncic – along with D’Angelo Russell and Jaden Hardy, clearing more than $12 million for 2026-27. Rookie Cooper Flagg is the new franchise anchor, and the front office is searching for a long-term point guard partner in a draft it does not control for years to come. Financially, the Mavericks are below both tax aprons; Kyrie Irving is owed $39.4 million and $42.4 million the next two seasons, Klay Thompson’s contract expires, and Max Christie can sign a four-year, $92.8 million extension.
Chicago Bulls
Record: 24-34 | Projected: 33-49 | No. 1 odds: 5.9%
Seven deadline deals signaled a full rebuild in Chicago, which has lost nine straight and dropped 1-12 since Jan. 25. Recent first-rounders Matas Buzelis and Noa Essengue give the Bulls athletic forwards, so guard help tops the 2026 draft agenda despite Josh Giddey’s presence. The front office could wield as much as $60 million in cap space this summer but must spend at least $44 million to reach the salary floor; projections show nearly $100 million of space by 2027.
Memphis Grizzlies
Record: 21-35 | Projected: 35-47 | No. 1 odds: 4.2%
Memphis dismantled the core around Ja Morant, trading Desmond Bane last summer and Jackson at the deadline. Morant, out with a sprained left elbow ligament, will be re-evaluated in two weeks, partly to rebuild trade value. Seven future first-rounders arrived in the Bane-Jackson deals, and only Morant earns more than $22 million. Guards Acuff or Brown could fit if the lottery falls in the back half of the top ten. Off-season plans include exploring Morant trades; Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has a $21.6 million option for 2026-27 after pinkie surgery.
Milwaukee Bucks
Record: 24-31 | Projected: 36-46 | No. 1 odds: 0% (receives the worse of its own pick and New Orleans’)
Giannis Antetokounmpo remains a Buck, and Milwaukee went 6-2 without him in its last eight games while adding free agent Cam Thomas for scoring help. The Bucks will draft whichever selection is lower – their own or New Orleans’ – so a top-four spot requires both jumps, an unlikely scenario. Back-court reinforcements are still the priority. The summer centers on persuading Antetokounmpo to sign an extension when eligible Oct. 1. Milwaukee can now trade its 2026 first, plus 2031 and 2033 picks and swaps, but free-agency tools are limited to the $15.1 million mid-level, $5.5 million bi-annual and minimum exceptions with nine players holding options.
The lottery is scheduled for May 10, setting the stage for a June draft that could accelerate – or complicate – each franchise’s rebuild.
Source: ESPN
