NBA Draft Lottery Poised to Reshape League for Years
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The NBA will draw the ping-pong balls on Sunday, and executives across the league believe the 2026 draft lottery could redirect franchises for a generation. Nine teams have been suspected of some level of tanking over the past six months, all hoping to land prospects such as AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, Darius Acuff Jr. and Caleb Wilson.
The Pacers-Clippers Coin Toss
No organization faces a wider range of outcomes than the Los Angeles Clippers. In February, Indiana sent its 2026 first-round pick to L.A. in the Ivica Zubac trade—unless that selection lands in the top four. The odds are nearly even: the Pacers have a 52% chance of moving into the top four and a 48% chance of falling to No. 5 or No. 6, which would transfer the pick to the Clippers.
If the pick conveys, Los Angeles could secure a franchise cornerstone as it rebuilds after trading Zubac and James Harden last winter. If it does not, the Clippers must wait until 2031 to receive Indiana’s pick, per the same deal.
Meanwhile, the Pacers—coming off a “gap year” while All-NBA guard Tyrese Haliburton recovered from a torn Achilles—could pair a top-four rookie with a core that reached the 2025 Finals. Indiana has not climbed in the lottery since 1989.
The Clippers also surrendered their own No. 12 pick to Oklahoma City in the 2019 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander trade. That selection carries a 7% chance of jumping into the top four and a 1.5% shot at No. 1, a potential windfall for the defending champion Thunder, who already hold Philadelphia’s pick at No. 17 and have just one open roster slot.
Atlanta’s Double Chance
After winning last year’s lottery with only a 3% chance, the Hawks are back despite owning no pick of their own—San Antonio controls it. A draft-day deal in 2025 gave Atlanta the better pick between Milwaukee and New Orleans this year. Combining those odds gives Atlanta an implied 40% shot at a top-four slot and a 90% probability of finishing in the top eight, a major boost for a team that just logged 46 wins, its best total in a decade.
The “Flippers” Eye Quick Turnarounds
Washington Wizards: Holding the league’s best lottery odds for a third straight season, Washington plans to pair its fourth lottery pick in as many years with Trae Young and Anthony Davis after acquiring both last season.
Utah Jazz: The Jazz have never moved up in 11 lottery appearances and dropped four times, including each of the past two years. Fined a combined $600,000 for anti-tanking violations, Utah owns a 45% chance at a top-four spot and hopes to unite that rookie with Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., Keyonte George and, possibly, free-agent center Walker Kessler. Those four missed 171 games this season.
Brooklyn Nets: A 2024 agreement with Houston restored control of Brooklyn’s 2025 and 2026 first-rounders while sending the 2027 pick to the Rockets. The Nets retained Michael Porter Jr.—who missed 30 games after sitting just six the previous two seasons—and could wield roughly $50 million in cap space.
Dallas Mavericks: Kyrie Irving sat out the year to rehab a torn ACL, and Anthony Davis was traded for cap relief and three future picks. Dallas will not control its own first-rounder again until 2030, making this selection critical as the club tries to find a partner for reigning Rookie of the Year Cooper Flagg.
Single-Digit Dreamers
Last year, Dallas had a 1.8% chance of winning the lottery and San Antonio just 6.5% at the No. 2 spot—both hit. Two more low-probability teams could shake the league if history repeats:
Miami Heat: With only a 4% chance at the top four, Miami is hunting for a trade-market star and could package a lucky pick immediately.
Golden State Warriors: The Warriors kept their pick after Milwaukee declined a trade offer centered on Giannis Antetokounmpo. Golden State’s selection has a 9% chance of soaring into the top four, a move that would supply Stephen Curry with an urgently needed young running mate following Jimmy Butler’s ACL injury.
The ping-pong balls will settle on Sunday; the reverberations could be felt for decades.
Source: ESPN
