The NBA’s first look at how much its biggest stars can earn in 2026-27 is now available. Using the league’s latest forecast—which points to a 7 percent salary-cap increase next summer—front offices are working with a preliminary cap figure of $165,472,000.
Under the collective bargaining agreement, a player’s opening-year maximum salary is tied to service time: 25 percent of the cap for up to six years of experience, 30 percent for seven to nine years, and 35 percent for 10 or more years. Players re-signing with their current teams may secure five-year deals with 8 percent annual raises, while those changing clubs are limited to four years with 5 percent raises.
Projected maximums for players re-signing (5 years, 8 % raises)
| Season | ≤6 Years (25 %) | 7-9 Years (30 %) | 10+ Years (35 %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/27 | $41,368,000 | $49,641,600 | $57,915,200 |
| 2027/28 | $44,677,440 | $53,612,928 | $62,548,416 |
| 2028/29 | $47,986,880 | $57,584,256 | $67,181,632 |
| 2029/30 | $51,296,320 | $61,555,584 | $71,814,848 |
| 2030/31 | $54,605,760 | $65,526,912 | $76,448,064 |
| Total | $239,934,400 | $287,921,280 | $335,908,160 |
This matrix outlines Chet Holmgren’s new agreement with Oklahoma City. Paolo Banchero and Jalen Williams can match those figures unless they qualify for the 30 percent tier through All-NBA, MVP, or Defensive Player of the Year honors.
De’Aaron Fox’s four-year extension with San Antonio lands in the 30 percent band but ends in 2029-30, trimming his projected earnings to roughly $222.4 million. The same 30 percent scale would guide Trae Young’s next contract if the Atlanta guard enters free agency next summer. Veterans such as LeBron James or James Harden would fit the 35 percent slot; however, because of the Over-38 rule, neither is eligible for a full four- or five-year deal.
Projected maximums for players switching teams (4 years, 5 % raises)
| Season | ≤6 Years (25 %) | 7-9 Years (30 %) | 10+ Years (35 %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/27 | $41,368,000 | $49,641,600 | $57,915,200 |
| 2027/28 | $43,436,400 | $52,123,680 | $60,810,960 |
| 2028/29 | $45,504,800 | $54,605,760 | $63,706,720 |
| 2029/30 | $47,573,200 | $57,087,840 | $66,602,480 |
| Total | $177,882,400 | $213,458,880 | $249,035,360 |
Free agents eyeing a change of scenery face shorter terms and smaller raises. An example is Austin Reaves, whose 25 percent max would be valued at nearly $178 million across four seasons if he signs elsewhere. In the 30 percent band, a player such as Young could reach about $213 million, while a 10-year vet could approach $249 million.
Imagem: Luke Adams via hoopsrumors.com
These figures will be updated once the NBA locks in its 2026-27 cap next summer, but they provide teams and agents a framework for negotiating the next wave of mega-deals.
Source: Hoops Rumors
