The NBA community is already mapping out Cooper Flagg’s trajectory months before the No. 1 overall pick plays his first professional game. An internal ESPN survey of writers, editors, reporters and analysts released Aug. 7 breaks down expectations for the 19-year-old forward and the Dallas Mavericks, the club that leapt from 1.8% lottery odds to claim the top selection.
Immediate outlook: rookie season and playoffs
Flagg is expected to start right away on a roster that still features former No. 1 picks Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving. When asked where Dallas will finish in 2025-26, 73.1% of panelists placed the club in the play-in range (seeds 7-10), 23.1% predicted a direct playoff berth (seeds 5-6) and 3.8% forecast a lottery result. No one envisioned home-court advantage.
Irving’s timetable from a torn left ACL and the advancing ages of Davis (32) and Irving (33) factored heavily into the projections.
Postseason success with the current core
Asked how many playoff series the trio of Flagg, Davis and Irving will win together, 30.8% picked one series, 26.9% chose two, and 19.2% said three. Only 3.8% believed six or more series victories are coming; 7.7% saw none at all.
All-Star debut likely within three years
The group gave Flagg slim odds of joining the All-Star Game as a rookie (3.8%). The majority expect the nod in Year 3: 57.7% circled the 2027-28 season, while 30.8% picked 2026-27. Only 7.7% pushed the prediction to 2028-29.
MVP chances remain modest for now
Nearly half the voters (46.2%) think Flagg will capture one MVP award during his career. Another 34.6% doubt he will ever win the trophy, 15.4% see two MVPs and 3.8% foresee four or more. Nobody predicted exactly three.
Championship probability
Winning a title is historically difficult for top picks, and the panel reflected that: 76.9% picked Flagg to win a single championship, 7.7% chose two, 7.7% selected three, and 7.7% said he will never secure a ring.
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Franchise loyalty predictions
Modern player movement shaped expectations about Flagg’s career stops. Just 3.8% said he will spend his entire career in Dallas. The most common response—53.8%—projected two teams, while 34.6% predicted three and 7.7% anticipated four or more.
Projected placement in ESPN’s 2025 NBA Rank
More than half the panel (53.8%) believe Flagg will debut between 51 and 75 on next year’s list. Another 30.8% placed him in the 76-100 tier, and 15.4% were bullish enough to slot him between 26 and 50. No one expects a top-25 position.
Team stance: win now, plan later
“We’re in win-now mode, and so he adds to that, but he’s also the future of the franchise,” general manager Nico Harrison said during Flagg’s July introduction, underscoring why Dallas sees the Maine native as both immediate contributor and long-term cornerstone.
Source: ESPN
