NBA insider raises doubts about Trail Blazers surpassing 34.5-win projection
blazers-over-under-34-5-wins
Former Memphis Grizzlies executive and current Athletic analyst John Hollinger believes the Portland Trail Blazers are unlikely to beat the Las Vegas over/under line of 34.5 victories for the upcoming NBA season.
Portland finished last year at 36-46 and posted a 23-18 record after the All-Star break, numbers that might suggest another mid-30s win total. Hollinger, however, points to underlying metrics and roster losses that, in his view, undermine that expectation.
Net rating suggests overachievement
The Blazers ranked 22nd in net rating in 2023-24, a differential that Hollinger says typically corresponds to about 33 wins. He argues the club’s final record outpaced its statistical profile, meaning natural regression could pull the total downward.
Key scorers departed
Portland traded leading scorer Anfernee Simons to the Boston Celtics in the deal that brought back Jrue Holiday, and later bought out center Deandre Ayton. Simons, despite defensive shortcomings, was the team’s most efficient offensive option, while Ayton converted 59.4 percent of his two-point attempts. Their exits leave significant scoring gaps.
Heavy reliance on unproven options
The franchise is now counting on second-year guard Scoot Henderson, who has yet to prove he can handle a primary role, and the 34-year-old Holiday, who played a reduced role last season. Hollinger identifies Deni Avdija as Portland’s likely first option and labels him the least talented No. 1 scorer in the Western Conference. Wing Shaedon Sharpe offers upside but remains more potential than production.
Injured addition offers no immediate help
Portland spent its mid-level exception on veteran guard Damian Lillard, but he is sidelined with an injury and is not expected to contribute in the near term.
With a youthful roster, an offensively thin rotation and a deep Western Conference, Hollinger concludes the Trail Blazers face an uphill battle to hit 35 wins.
Source: Hoops Wire
