ESPN Fantasy analysts André Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick and Steve Alexander released their annual list of players they believe will most exceed – or fall short of – preseason draft expectations for the 2025-26 NBA fantasy season. The selections were published on September 18, 2025.
Sleepers
Stephon Castle, PG, San Antonio Spurs
Castle averaged 19.3 points, 5.2 rebounds and 5.6 assists over the final 25 games last season while winning Rookie of the Year. Despite that production, he is still being drafted outside ESPN’s top 100.
Alex Sarr, C, Washington Wizards
The 2024 No. 2 pick is viewed as a nightly double-double candidate with shot-blocking and emerging three-point range, drawing comparisons to a young Jaren Jackson Jr.
Kevin Porter Jr., SG, Milwaukee Bucks
With Milwaukee thin at guard after the Damian Lillard move, Porter is projected for extended minutes under coach Doc Rivers. He averaged 19.3 points in four starts last year.
Trey Murphy III, SF, New Orleans Pelicans
Murphy is fully recovered from a torn labrum. Per-36 numbers from 2024-25 were 21.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.1 three-pointers, and Zion Williamson’s injury history could open additional usage.
Matas Buzelis, SF, Chicago Bulls
Buzelis, entering Year 2, is favored to start at power forward after posting 13.0 points, 4.5 rebounds and 1.1 blocks in 31 starts as a rookie.
Breakouts
Brandon Miller, SF, Charlotte Hornets
Miller attempted 11.4 threes per 36 minutes last season and improved across most categories, positioning him for a significant statistical jump.
Cooper Flagg, SF, Dallas Mavericks
The rookie is projected for roughly 20 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, one steal, one block and 1.5 threes per game on a roster featuring the oft-injured Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving.
Josh Giddey, SG, Chicago Bulls
Giddey closed last season with 20.2 points, 9.5 rebounds and 8.1 assists over his final 25 games and could be featured all year, giving him top-20 upside in points formats.
Jaylen Wells, SG, Memphis Grizzlies
Following the trade of Desmond Bane, Wells is expected to inherit a larger role after averaging 10.4 points and 1.7 threes in 25.9 minutes as a rookie.
Kel’el Ware, C, Miami Heat
Ware averaged 11 points, 8.9 rebounds and 1.3 blocks across his last 49 games as a rookie. He is projected to start at center while Bam Adebayo shifts to power forward.
Busts
Paul George, SF, Philadelphia 76ers
George, 35, is coming off another knee procedure and has appeared in fewer than 60 games in five of the past six seasons. He posted 16.2 points per game last year and now shares touches with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.
Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies
Morant has played more than 60 games only once in his career and saw declines in scoring, rebounds and assists in 2024-25 while turnovers climbed.
Ivica Zubac, C, Los Angeles Clippers
Zubac averaged 16.8 points and 12.6 rebounds in 32.8 minutes last year, but offseason additions John Collins and Brook Lopez are expected to reduce his playing time and production.
Nic Claxton, C, Brooklyn Nets
Claxton’s defensive upside is tempered by free-throw struggles and limited offense, and the Nets plan to experiment with smaller lineups.
Fred VanVleet, PG, Houston Rockets
With Kevin Durant joining Houston and young guards Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard set for larger roles, VanVleet’s usage rate is projected to decline.
The analysts issued the lists to help fantasy managers identify players likely to outperform or underperform their average draft positions when leagues draft for the 2025-26 campaign.
Source: ESPN
