Just seven NBA franchises remain on track to pay the luxury tax for the 2025/26 season, a sharp drop from the 14 projected taxpayers at the start of February, according to figures compiled by cap analysts Bobby Marks and Eric Pincus.
Pre-deadline trades pushed the Celtics, Nuggets, Suns, Mavericks, 76ers, Magic and Raptors below the tax threshold, cutting the overall penalty pool by more than half. The current projection shows $220.65 million in tax payments league-wide, led by the Cavaliers at $68.67 million.
Projected 2025/26 luxury tax bills
Cleveland Cavaliers: $68.67 million
Golden State Warriors*: $65.67 million
New York Knicks: $44.44 million
Los Angeles Lakers*: $22.65 million
Houston Rockets: $7.07 million
Los Angeles Clippers*: $6.67 million
Minnesota Timberwolves: $5.48 million
Total: $220.65 million
*Indicates teams incurring repeater-tax rates.
Cleveland’s bill once approached $164 million, but deadline deals shaved more than $95 million off that figure. Similar cost-cutting moves helped reduce Golden State’s penalty, though the Warriors still face the league’s second-largest tax hit and remain a repeater taxpayer.
Because the penalty total is split evenly among non-tax clubs, the league’s 23 projected non-taxpayers now expect roughly $4.8 million each. Earlier in the month, that dividend was estimated near $13.8 million per team.
The numbers could shift again before season’s end. The Warriors, Rockets and Timberwolves each have an open roster spot that, if filled, would raise their tax bills. Performance incentives and late-season conversions, such as the Clippers’ promotion of Jordan Miller and the Knicks’ signing of Jeremy Sochan, may also change final totals.
Looking ahead, the Warriors, Lakers and Clippers would all trigger repeater penalties again in 2026/27 if they remain taxpayers next season. The Bucks, Celtics, Suns and Nuggets would face the same fate if they spend another year above the line, having paid tax in each season from 2023-25.
For comparison, the 2024/25 campaign featured 10 taxpayers who combined for $461.21 million in penalties, yielding $11.53 million apiece to 20 non-tax clubs.
Source: Hoops Rumors
