The milestone that former coach Phil Jackson once used to judge contenders—hitting 40 wins before taking 20 losses—continues to track with championship success, research cited by The Athletic shows.
Reporter Scott Phillips noted that, per data compiled by colleague Law Murray, 18 of the last 19 NBA champions achieved the 40-before-20 benchmark. Since the three-point line debuted in 1979, only four title teams have failed to meet the threshold.
Three teams clear the bar in 2025-26
As of late February 2026, just three clubs have reached 40 wins with fewer than 20 losses:
- Oklahoma City Thunder – reigning champions
- San Antonio Spurs – riding a 10-game winning streak
- Detroit Pistons – leading the Eastern Conference
The Boston Celtics slipped to 38-20 after a recent defeat, dropping them out of the 40-win window. Even so, the Celtics, Denver Nuggets and Cleveland Cavaliers remain in contention, though history suggests their path to a title is steeper.
Next checkpoint: avoiding 30 losses
The same data set indicates that few champions finish with 30 or more defeats, adding another filter as the regular season heads into its final six weeks.
While the 40-before-20 rule is not a guarantee, the long-running trend offers a clear snapshot of where the championship odds currently lie.
Source: Hoops Wire
