August 17, 2025 — The 2025 NBA draft lottery upended projections when Dallas, San Antonio and Philadelphia jumped to the top three spots and selected Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper and VJ Edgecombe, respectively. Less than two months later, ESPN analyst Kevin Pelton released an early look at the Rookie of the Year race, installing Flagg as the clear favorite at -190 on ESPN BET.
Pelton noted that recent highly touted American prospects—Zion Williamson and Anthony Davis—both fell short of the award, underscoring that Flagg is not guaranteed to win despite the odds.
Primary Contenders
Pelton divided the 2025 class into tiers, starting with three players he believes have the best chance to unseat Flagg:
- Kon Knueppel, No. 4 to the Hornets — +2800
- Tre Johnson, No. 6 to the Wizards — +750
- Ace Bailey, No. 5 to the Jazz — +1600
All three landed with teams that posted some of the league’s worst records last season, giving them a clear path to minutes and shot attempts. Pelton believes Knueppel, the former Duke wing, may be positioned for the quickest start.
Wild Cards
Harper (+1000) and Edgecombe (+1200) form a separate tier. While both guards possess top-three talent, Pelton cautioned that established backcourts in San Antonio and Philadelphia could limit their rookie roles unless injuries create openings.
Long Shots
The final group features prospects with steeper paths to the trophy:
- Walter Clayton Jr., No. 18, Jazz
- Nique Clifford, No. 24, Kings
- Egor Demin, No. 8, Nets
- Jeremiah Fears, No. 7, Pelicans
- Ryan Kalkbrenner, No. 34, Hornets
- Derik Queen, No. 13, Pelicans
Kalkbrenner, the lone second-round selection in Pelton’s breakdown, did not crack the top-28 betting options but could start for Charlotte on opening night, adding intrigue to his candidacy.
Pelton’s full analysis invites fans to weigh in on which rookies might surprise during the 2025-26 campaign.
Source: Hoops Rumors
