TITLE: Pelton’s Projections Favor Clippers, Question Lakers, Slightly Boost Mavericks
SLUG: pelton-projects-clippers-lakers-mavericks-2024-win-totals
CONTENT:
ESPN analyst Kevin Pelton expects the Los Angeles Clippers to clear their preseason betting line, projects the Los Angeles Lakers to fall short again, and sees the Dallas Mavericks edging past expectations, according to his latest win-total model.
Clippers
Pelton forecasts 49.7 wins for the Clippers, in large part because his model anticipates Kawhi Leonard appearing in 66 games—close to last season’s 68 and the forward’s second-highest figure since joining the franchise. The projection also highlights the roster’s depth: no Clipper is rated worse than minus-0.5 points per 100 possessions in more than 200 projected minutes, indicating no glaring rotational weaknesses.
Lakers
The Lakers are pegged for 45.8 wins, a total Pelton notes continues a pattern of underperforming against Las Vegas lines. Since the 2013-14 season, Los Angeles has averaged 5.7 fewer wins per year than its betting number, the widest gap in the league over that span. Pelton labels the current group “the league’s top-heaviest team,” with only four players grading above the league average; comparable clubs such as the Nets, Jazz and Wizards are projected to finish in the lottery.
Mavericks
Pelton’s model gives Dallas a slight uptick on its betting figure, crediting a roster that features eight players graded above league average. Kyrie Irving, sidelined by a knee injury without a timetable for return, remains a key variable. Until Irving is available, Pelton writes, guard D’Angelo Russell must steady the backcourt. Still, the analyst sees enough depth and star power—despite Irving’s absence and the February trade involving Luka Doncic—to keep Dallas over the line.
The projections are part of Pelton’s annual model measuring expected wins based on player health, individual impact and historical performance relative to betting markets.
Source: Hoops Wire
