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NBA Lowers 2026-27 Salary Cap Forecast to $165 Million

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The NBA has told its 30 franchises that the projected salary cap for the 2026/27 season has been trimmed to $165 million, a $1 million drop from the previous estimate, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania. League officials attributed the revision to declining local media revenue.

When the league set the 2025/26 cap at $154,647,000, teams were advised to expect a 7% jump—about $165,472,000—for the following year. That figure was raised to $166 million in September, but the newest guidance moves the forecast back down.

Although the change is modest, it could affect clubs projected to exceed the first or second tax aprons, as those thresholds will slide in tandem with the cap. Teams planning to operate under the cap may also need to adjust offseason strategies.

Local media issues drive adjustment

The reduction comes amid turmoil in regional broadcasting. Sports Business Journal recently reported that Main Street Sports Group—holder of local television rights for 13 teams—faces insolvency and has missed rights-fee payments due on January 1, February 1 and March 1. To offset the shortfall, the NBA is exploring the launch of a league-operated streaming hub for local games as early as next season, a move originally slated for a later date.

While the league aims to have a solution in place by 2026/27, there is no guarantee of a rollout. Teams affected by the Main Street situation have been encouraged to pursue interim linear and streaming agreements.

CBA limits large jumps

The current collective bargaining agreement caps annual salary-cap growth at 10% to avoid a repeat of the 34.5% spike in 2016. A full 10% increase would push the 2026/27 cap to $170,112,000, but today’s update suggests a smaller rise is more likely.

Source: Hoops Rumors

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