Ten NBA Off-Season Questions Already Shaping the Summer of 2026
ten-nba-offseason-questions-2026
The 2025-26 campaign has yet to tip off—Oklahoma City will raise its banner against Houston on Oct. 21—but the league is buzzing about what might unfold once the schedule ends. From superstar free agency to a draft class scouts already covet, here are the key topics that could define the 2026 off-season.
How recent extensions shrink next year’s market
Nine players who could have been free agents in July 2026 have already committed long-term: Mikal Bridges, Luka Doncic, De’Aaron Fox, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jakob Poeltl, Jabari Smith Jr., Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. Their new deals thin out a class that once looked deep.
Two notable names remain eligible: Trae Young and Kevin Durant. Young can sign a four-year, $229 million extension through June 30—or a five-year, $345 million super-max if he earns All-NBA honors. Declining his $49 million player option for 2026-27 would put him on the open market. Durant has been able to add two years and $118 million to his Houston contract since July 6.
The LeBron James watch
For the first time in his career, LeBron James is not under contract beyond the coming season. The 40-year-old exercised a $52.6 million option for 2025-26 but will be an unrestricted free agent next July. Agent Rich Paul has made it clear that championship viability will drive the choice of where—if anywhere—James plays a 24th season.
Other headline free-agent possibilities
Only James is certain to reach free agency, yet several high-profile players could join him if options are declined or talks stall. The list includes Durant, James Harden, Young, Christian Braun, Bradley Beal, Draymond Green, Zach LaVine, Austin Reaves and Coby White. Reaves already turned down a four-year, $89.2 million extension and can either accept a four-year, $98 million deal next summer or opt out and seek 25 percent of the 2026-27 cap.
Superstars who could shake up 2027
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Stephen Curry are under contract for 2026-27 but hold extension decisions next summer. Antetokounmpo can tack on four years and $293 million while replacing his $62.8 million option. Jokic can wait a year to secure a four-year add-on worth roughly $293 million. Curry, without an option year, may choose a two-year, $136.7 million extension because of the Over-38 rule. Decisions by Donovan Mitchell, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis and Kawhi Leonard also loom in that window.
2026 rookie extension candidates
Victor Wembanyama headlines the class that will be eligible for new deals in 2026. A five-year, $271 million contract—potentially escalating to $326 million with league honors—awaits the San Antonio star. Ausar Thompson, Amen Thompson, Brandin Podziemski, Brandon Miller, Cason Wallace and Dereck Lively II join him on the extension radar.
Cap space forecast
After just three clubs operated with room this summer, at least ten—Brooklyn, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, the L.A. Clippers, the L.A. Lakers, Portland, Utah and Washington—are projected to have meaningful flexibility in 2026. A 10-percent cap jump this year followed by an expected 7-percent rise in 2026-27, combined with fewer veteran extensions, should restore spending power.
First-round picks on the move
Draft-night maneuvering left several valuable 2026 first-rounders in flux. New Orleans will send the more favorable of its own or Milwaukee’s pick to Atlanta after climbing ten spots to select Derik Queen. Memphis will receive the less favorable first from Phoenix or Washington (protected 1-8) via the Desmond Bane deal. Oklahoma City could control picks from Houston (5-30), the L.A. Clippers (unprotected), Philadelphia (4-30) and Utah (9-30), in addition to its own.
Comeback hopes in Boston and Indiana
The Celtics slashed payroll from $540 million to $239 million after Jayson Tatum’s right Achilles tear derailed their title defense. A healthy Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White return next fall, and the club owns its 2026 first-round pick plus Anfernee Simons’ $27.7 million expiring salary as trade ballast.
Indiana’s trajectory shifted when Tyrese Haliburton tore his right Achilles in Game 7 of the Finals and Myles Turner left for Milwaukee. Haliburton is expected back for 2026-27, and the Pacers have 13 players—including Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard—under contract, along with their own 2026 first-rounder.
Possible surge in qualifying offers
Only two restricted free agents—Deandre Ayton in 2022 and Matisse Thybulle in 2023—have signed offer sheets in recent years, but a larger number could test the market next summer because of the anticipated cap space. Fourteen members of the 2022 draft class, among them Dyson Daniels, Shaedon Sharpe and Keegan Murray, have until Oct. 20 to sign extensions that would remove them from that pool.
Early look at the 2026 draft class
Scouts view the 2026 draft as significantly stronger than 2027, increasing the stakes for lottery positioning. Kansas guard Darryn Peterson and BYU wing A.J. Dybantsa are considered the leading contenders for No. 1, with Duke’s Cameron Boozer and Tennessee forward Nate Ament close behind. Other prospects currently tracking in the lottery include Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr., New Zealand Breakers forward Karim Lopez and Kentucky center Jayden Quaintance.
With contract decisions, cap space projections and a coveted draft field converging, team executives are already preparing for an eventful 2026 summer—even before the 2025-26 season tips off.
Source: ESPN.com
