2025-26 NBA experts favor Thunder repeat; Cavaliers top pick in the East
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ESPN’s annual Summer Forecast points to a familiar face in the West and a reshuffled hierarchy in the East as the NBA prepares for its 80th season. A panel of reporters and analysts ranked the leading contenders for each conference title and the 2026 NBA crown, assigning five points for a first-place vote, three for second and one for third.
Eastern Conference projections
1. Cleveland Cavaliers — 98 points
2. New York Knicks — 72
3. Orlando Magic — 21
4. Milwaukee Bucks — 7
5. Indiana Pacers — 3
Cleveland earned the top spot despite offseason foot surgeries that will sideline starters Darius Garland and Max Strus for an extended stretch. Panelists expect the roster to be intact by spring, keeping the Cavaliers in pole position.
New York’s second-place finish reflects both postseason experience and financial flexibility; the club sits below the league’s second tax apron, giving it room to chase roster upgrades before the February trade deadline.
Orlando’s aggressive bid to contend — a four-first-round-pick package for guard Desmond Bane — impressed voters enough for third. Milwaukee and Indiana round out the top five.
Western Conference projections
1. Oklahoma City Thunder — 106 points
2. Denver Nuggets — 50
3. Houston Rockets — 35
4. Los Angeles Lakers / Minnesota Timberwolves — 7
5. Golden State Warriors — 2
Oklahoma City, seeking to become the league’s first back-to-back champion since 2018, brought back 14 of 15 players and extended All-NBA trio Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. Continuity, voters said, keeps the Thunder clear of the pack.
Denver, which pushed Oklahoma City to seven games in last season’s conference semifinals, overhauled its rotation by flipping Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson and adding Jonas Valančiūnas, Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr.
Houston’s offseason headline was the arrival of Kevin Durant, giving a young roster its first established superstar and vaulting the Rockets into third place in the poll.
2026 NBA Finals projections
1. Oklahoma City Thunder — 101 points
2. Denver Nuggets — 36
3. Cleveland Cavaliers — 27
4. Houston Rockets — 21
5. New York Knicks — 11
Voters overwhelmingly predict the Thunder will snap the league’s streak of seven different champions in seven seasons. The defending titleholders are expected to improve naturally as their core ages around 27-year-old MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Denver is viewed as the primary threat, thanks to its deepened roster surrounding two-time Finals MVP Nikola Jokić. Cleveland, Houston and New York complete the projected top five.
The regular season tips off in October, with contenders and newcomers alike chasing the Larry O’Brien Trophy next June.
Source: ESPN
