Thunder Weigh Past, Present and Future as 2025-26 Season Begins
SLUG: thunder-three-paths-2025-26
CONTENT:
The Oklahoma City Thunder open training camp as the consensus pick to defend their NBA title, but the franchise still faces one overriding question: has the team already peaked, is its peak imminent, or is the best yet to come?
Parity has defined the league—seven different champions have been crowned in the past seven years, and no titleholder has reached even the conference finals since Kevin Durant’s Golden State Warriors. Despite that trend, 80% of league general managers selected Oklahoma City to win the 2025-26 championship in the annual preseason survey, a year after 83% chose the Boston Celtics to repeat before Boston exited in Round 2 when Jayson Tatum tore his Achilles.
Why last year might prove the high-water mark
Oklahoma City’s 2024-25 club posted a 68-14 record and a plus-12.9 point differential—the best single-season margin in NBA history. History suggests that level is difficult to maintain: 25 of the previous 26 teams that won at least 64 games won fewer the next year. Opponents also hit just 37% of their wide-open threes against the Thunder and shot 1.3 percentage points below expected overall from deep, a swing worth roughly 120 points across the season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander logged 76 regular-season games and averaged 32 points, becoming only the 35th player to clear that mark. In 28 of the previous 34 instances, that scorer failed to repeat the feat the following year. Head coach Mark Daigneault, facing a short offseason and a roster eager for another long playoff run, could lean on load management more heavily this time.
Why 2025-26 could be the true apex
Regression indicators are softened by the Thunder’s age curve. Alex Caruso and Kenrich Williams, both 31, are the only rotation players older than 27. Injuries trimmed the availability of several starters last year—Luguentz Dort missed 11 games, Jalen Williams 13, Isaiah Hartenstein 25 and Chet Holmgren 50—leaving room for natural improvement if the roster stays healthier.
The team also returns 99.2% of its playoff minutes, ensuring continuity rarely afforded to champions. Daigneault’s tactical growth was evident last spring, highlighted by his decision to deploy the smaller Caruso on Nikola Jokic in a decisive Game 7 of the conference semifinals.
Financially, this season represents a sweet spot. Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren and Williams combine for 38% of the salary cap now, but that share jumps to at least 75% in 2026-27 when maximum extensions take effect and escalates to 85% by 2027-28. Club options on Dort and Hartenstein for 2026-27 total $46.7 million, meaning tough decisions could follow.
Why the peak might still be years away
The Thunder captured their first title with a playoff rotation averaging 24.7 years old; the typical NBA champion since 1984 has averaged 28.7. Only the 2014-15 Warriors (26.4) were previously within shouting distance of that youth.
Jalen Williams joined an exclusive modern list of players with All-NBA and All-Defensive honors by age 23 that includes Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid and Kobe Bryant. Holmgren allowed opponents to shoot 50.6% at the rim over his first two seasons, the third-best mark among 389 players with at least 100 shots defended, narrowly ahead of Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert. If Holmgren’s offense catches up to his defense, Oklahoma City could field three top-10 talents simultaneously.
General manager Sam Presti has also staggered role-player contracts—Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe and Jaylin Williams all signed descending deals—and still holds extra first-round picks in 2026, 2027 and 2029, plus multiple swaps. That pipeline could offset future cap crunches and extend the window far beyond the current core’s mid-20s.
Historical dynasties often improved after their first title. The Lakers peaked in 2001 following their 2000 win; the Bulls reached their statistical apex in 1996, five years after breaking through; and the Warriors set a 73-win record two seasons after their initial 2015 banner. If that pattern holds, the Thunder’s most dominant iteration may still be on the horizon.
Whether the franchise already hit its summit, is poised to do so now, or will climb higher later remains unresolved. What is clear is that the reigning champions enter the new season with expectations unseen since the Durant-era Warriors—and a league eager to find out which of the three paths Oklahoma City ultimately follows.
Source: ESPN
