Proposal Would Tie Draft Odds to Post-Break Wins, Aiming to Curb NBA Tanking
proposal-would-tie-draft-odds-to-post-break-wins
The NBA is weighing a plan that would reward late-season victories by using post-All-Star break wins—not losses—to establish draft lottery odds, according to league sources interviewed by ESPN.
How the system would work
Under the concept, the traditional order based on total losses would remain in place until a fixed date—likely the All-Star break or trade deadline. From that point forward, every win would improve a team’s lottery position, flipping the current incentive structure that encourages bottom-tier clubs to lose.
Commissioner acknowledges incentive problem
During All-Star weekend, Commissioner Adam Silver used the word “incentives” five times while addressing tanking. “You have the incentives backwards,” he said, noting that economists regularly criticize the league for rewarding poor performance with high picks.
Illustration with last season’s standings
Had the rule been in place last year, the Toronto Raptors would have jumped from seventh to second in lottery odds, while the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks would have risen from 12th to a tie for third and from 13th to eighth, respectively. Conversely, the Utah Jazz and Philadelphia 76ers—each 4-24 after the break—would have fallen from first and fifth to a tie for fifth and a tie for 12th.
Current season spotlight
The debate comes as the Indiana Pacers, Washington Wizards and Utah Jazz hold out recently acquired players whose injuries did not prevent them from appearing for previous clubs. Indiana center Ivica Zubac (ankle), Washington guard Trae Young (leg) and forward Anthony Davis (hand), and Utah’s Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) are all sidelined while their teams sit at or near the bottom of the standings.
Utah was fined $500,000 for its handling of Jackson and Lauri Markkanen’s minutes in a February win at Miami, further highlighting league concern over competitive integrity.
Reaction inside the league
ESPN spoke with more than 10 coaches, scouts and executives; all supported the proposal, saying it directly targets tanking incentives. Some suggested weighted wins to avoid penalizing the worst rosters, while others worried about injuries to star players derailing legitimate seasons. Another concern is that clubs might tank more aggressively before the cutoff date.
Next steps
The idea is expected to surface at the NBA Board of Governors meeting next month. Whether owners adopt the change remains uncertain, but the league continues to examine options that would, in Silver’s words, “put the best product forward.”
Source: ESPN
