Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic risk falling short of new MVP eligibility rule
gilgeous-alexander-jokic-face-mvp-rule-threat
The race for the NBA’s 2025-26 regular-season MVP tightened this week as front-runners Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic approach the league’s new availability cutoff that could bar them from consideration.
Under a rule implemented this season, players who miss more than 17 games cannot receive postseason awards. Gilgeous-Alexander, the odds-on favorite at -125 Wednesday at DraftKings Sportsbook, was ruled out of Wednesday night’s matchup against the Detroit Pistons (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) with an abdominal strain that has sidelined him since Feb. 3. The absence is his 11th, leaving the Oklahoma City Thunder guard needing appearances in at least 16 of the final 22 regular-season contests to remain eligible for a second consecutive MVP honor.
Denver Nuggets center Jokic, listed at +310, has already missed 16 games and would become ineligible if he sits twice more.
The uncertainty surrounding the two former MVPs has shifted betting patterns. Pistons guard Cade Cunningham has drawn more MVP wagers at DraftKings over the past week than all other players combined, moving his odds from 14-1 to 9-2, the third-shortest price on the board. Cunningham has also attracted the most overall MVP bets this season at BetMGM, where NBA trader Christian Hockerson noted manageable exposure on Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic but growing liability on Cunningham and Boston Celtics forward Jaylen Brown. Brown’s odds drifted from 10-1 to 40-1 during the same period.
San Antonio Spurs rookie center Victor Wembanyama is posted at 20-1 yet has missed 14 games, leaving him close to the 17-game threshold. Wembanyama has generated the highest volume of MVP tickets at DraftKings this season.
BetMGM has also reported recent action on Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell at 100-1 and Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards at 250-1.
An ESPN straw poll of 100 media members conducted last week indicated Gilgeous-Alexander would be the clear leader if he satisfies the league’s playing-time requirement.
Source: ESPN
