NBA Scouts Still Split on Peterson, Dybantsa, Boozer in 2026 No. 1 Pick Race
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Dec. 16, 2025 — The contest for the first overall selection in the 2026 NBA draft remains a three-player battle, according to conversations ESPN held with six NBA scouts and several college coaches. Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, BYU wing AJ Dybantsa and Duke forward Cameron Boozer are viewed across the league as legitimate candidates for the top spot, with Peterson still holding the No. 1 position on ESPN’s latest Big Board.
Why Darryn Peterson Leads for Now
The 6-foot-6 freshman entered college ranked No. 2 in the SC Next 100 and quickly reinforced his status, scoring 26 points in an exhibition at Louisville and 21 points in the regular-season opener versus Green Bay. A 22-point outing against North Carolina kept him atop early projections.
A hamstring injury sidelined Peterson for seven games, but he returned Dec. 7 to post 17 points in 23 minutes against Missouri and added another 17 in an overtime win over NC State before leaving late with quad cramps. Scouts describe him as “collected” and praise his blend of shot-making and playmaking. One Eastern Conference evaluator called him “the prototype of today’s NBA lead guard.”
Questions focus on whether Peterson can become a full-time point guard; some talent evaluators note that his handle and passing are still developing. The hamstring issue is expected to be examined during pre-draft medicals but is not seen as a major deterrent.
AJ Dybantsa’s Ceiling Keeps Him in the Mix
Dybantsa, who reclassified from the 2026 high-school class to 2025, entered BYU as the No. 1 player in the SC Next 100. Through nine collegiate games, the 6-foot-9 wing is averaging 20.9 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists while shooting 55.5 % from the floor and 34.8 % from three.
His 28-point, nine-rebound, six-assist performance against Clemson at the Jimmy V Classic—22 of those points after halftime—reignited talk that he owns the highest ceiling. Scouts cite his three-level scoring, positional size and defensive versatility. Skeptics point to streaky perimeter shooting (23 attempts in 10 games) and occasional ball-stopping habits. One scout said it is “easier to envision him struggling” than the other two prospects if his outside shot stalls.
Cameron Boozer Forces His Way Into the Debate
Boozer, son of former NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer, carried a decorated résumé into Duke with four high-school state titles and two FIBA gold medals. The 6-foot-9 forward has been the most statistically dominant freshman, averaging 23.0 points, 9.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.7 combined steals and blocks while shooting 56 % overall and 37 % from deep. Duke is 10-0 and holds the nation’s best Quad 1 record.
He has topped 30 points against Arkansas, scored 29 versus Florida and recorded double-doubles against Kansas and Texas. Front-office voices praise his polish and basketball IQ but question whether his below-the-rim finishing and average explosiveness limit his upside relative to Peterson and Dybantsa. Several scouts believe Boozer projects as a perennial 20-point, 10-rebound contributor, though some wonder if he can create late-game offense at the NBA level.
Early Favorites to Complete the Top Five
Beyond the leading trio, Louisville point guard Mikel Brown Jr. and North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson have emerged as primary options to round out the top five. Brown, a 6-foot-5 floor general, impressed scouts at the FIBA U19 Men’s World Cup and is averaging 16.7 points and 5.3 assists, including a 29-point showing against Kentucky. Some executives believe he could climb as high as No. 3 if a lottery team prioritizes a lead guard.
Wilson, a 6-foot-10 Atlanta native, is posting 19.4 points and 10.6 rebounds and delivered standout efforts in wins over Kansas and Kentucky. Scouts note his size, mobility and improved aggressiveness, though opinions vary on whether his trajectory places him firmly inside the top three or closer to the back half of the lottery.
With nearly four months remaining until the 2026 draft lottery, executives say the race for the first pick—and the jockeying behind it—remains fluid, driven by health, consistency and team needs.
Source: ESPN
