NBA postseason chase: key contenders, dates and award races
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With the trade deadline and All-Star Weekend behind them, NBA teams have roughly two months to lock in playoff seeding, secure award eligibility or slide into draft-lottery position. Here are the main storylines and matchups to watch down the stretch of the 2025-26 regular season.
Top questions
Who can block Oklahoma City’s title defense? The Denver Nuggets loom as the primary obstacle, provided their injury-hit roster is healthy by April. Denver’s retooled front office has assembled what insiders describe as the best supporting cast of Nikola Jokic’s career. San Antonio owned a 4-1 edge over the Thunder during the regular season, yet the Spurs’ lack of postseason experience raises doubts about a deep run.
Eastern Conference dark horse Boston sits second in the East despite Jayson Tatum’s absence with an Achilles injury suffered last postseason. If Tatum returns, the Celtics’ league-leading three-point firepower led by Jaylen Brown could shake up a conference headed by Cleveland, Detroit and Philadelphia.
Player incentives in focus Zion Williamson has already appeared in 40 games, triggering the first tier of salary protection in his five-year, $197.2 million extension with New Orleans. Playing at least 41 contests against Milwaukee on Friday guarantees $16.9 million of next season’s salary, with further benchmarks at 51 and 61 games and a weight clause.
LeBron James’ uncertain future James, 41, enters free agency this summer and has not committed to a 24th season. Lakers management has publicly welcomed a return, but his salary demands will shape Los Angeles’ roster options.
The race to the bottom Several clubs are jockeying for lottery odds—and scrutiny under the NBA’s player-participation policy. Commissioner Adam Silver has warned that future penalties could include loss of draft picks after the Pacers and Jazz were recently fined.
Milwaukee and Giannis The Bucks are 23-30 and 12th in the East as Giannis Antetokounmpo nurses a right-calf strain. Whether Milwaukee pushes for the play-in or pivots to lottery positioning could influence the two-time MVP’s long-term outlook with the franchise.
Cleveland’s gamble The Cavaliers have won 10 of 11 and replaced injured Darius Garland with James Harden, aiming for a top-two seed behind Donovan Mitchell’s career year.
Key dates at the top of the standings
Feb. 27: Cavaliers at Pistons, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) — first major test of the Harden era against the East-leading Pistons.
April 9: Celtics at Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET — potential battle for home-court advantage if Tatum is back.
April 10: Thunder at Nuggets, 9 p.m. ET — possible Western Conference finals preview and late MVP showcase for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic.
Matchups that matter in the lottery race
Feb. 20: Grizzlies at Jazz — first meeting since the Jaren Jackson Jr. trade; both clubs are under league scrutiny for lineup manipulation.
April 3: Pelicans at Kings — New Orleans owes its pick, while Sacramento eyes a top-three lottery slot.
April 5: Wizards at Nets — Sunday matinee could reshape the bottom of the standings one week before season’s end.
Award battles
MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 32.0 points on 67% true shooting for the West’s best record, edging Jokic, who leads the league in rebounds (12.3) and assists (10.7) despite 16 missed games.
Rookie of the Year: No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg posts 20.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.1 assists, with No. 4 pick Kon Knueppel close behind at 18.9 points on 43% three-point accuracy.
Coach of the Year: Detroit’s J.B. Bickerstaff is the favorite while guiding the Pistons to the league’s top winning percentage.
Most Improved Player: Deni Avdija (25.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 6.6 assists) and Jalen Johnson (23.3 points, 10.6 rebounds, 8.2 assists) lead a packed field.
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama averages 2.7 blocks and 1.0 steal; eligibility hinges on reaching the 65-game minimum. Chet Holmgren headlines the chase if Wembanyama falls short.
Already ineligible for awards: Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, Franz Wagner, Austin Reaves and Jalen Williams have all exceeded the 17-game absence limit.
On the brink: Nikola Jokic and Stephen Curry can miss only one more game apiece; Wembanyama three; Kawhi Leonard, Devin Booker and Evan Mobley four; Luka Doncic five; Anthony Edwards six; Avdija seven.
Draft considerations
Because flattened lottery odds no longer guarantee a top pick, several teams with protected obligations face high-stakes decisions. Indiana will convey its first-rounder to the Clippers if it lands 5-9, and Utah sends its pick to Oklahoma City unless it falls inside the top eight. The Thunder also own the Clippers’ first-rounder, while San Antonio can swap picks with Atlanta.
The NBA draft lottery is scheduled for May 10.
Source: ESPN.com
