A new projection model suggests the next six NBA seasons could finally deliver a championship to at least one of the league’s 10 franchises that have never won the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Analyst Neil Paine ran 2,500 simulations using preseason betting odds since 1985, weighted roster age and recent wins above replacement (WAR) to estimate each team’s chance of ending its title drought by 2031. The exercise produced a roughly 75% probability that a first-time winner will emerge.
Below is the ranking of those 10 organizations, along with their likelihood of becoming the next club to break through and their current 2025-26 title odds.
1. Orlando Magic
Chance to be next: 24.0%
Average roster age: 25.6 (youngest)
2025-26 odds: +1800 (4.2% implied)
Orlando’s young core of Franz Wagner (24) and Paolo Banchero (23), now joined by Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones, gives the league’s youngest roster its highest preseason title odds since 2010-11.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves
Chance to be next: 20.5%
Average roster age: 29.0 (22nd)
2025-26 odds: +1600 (4.7% implied)
Anthony Edwards (24) leads a veteran supporting cast that has reached three Western Conference finals but has yet to take the final step.
3. LA Clippers
Chance to be next: 15.5%
Average roster age: 33.2 (oldest)
2025-26 odds: +1600 (4.7% implied)
Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Brook Lopez and Chris Paul form the NBA’s oldest roster. A league investigation into alleged cap circumvention involving Leonard introduces additional uncertainty.
4. Indiana Pacers
Chance to be next: 13.1%
Average roster age: 27.5 (13th)
2025-26 odds: +8000 (1.0% implied)
The Pacers’ outlook dimmed when Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles in Game 7 of the 2025 Finals, sidelining him for 2025-26.
5. Memphis Grizzlies
Chance to be next: 6.9%
Average roster age: 27.1 (11th)
2025-26 odds: +10000 (0.8% implied)
Memphis traded Desmond Bane to Orlando and changed coaches after a first-round sweep, banking on Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. to lead a quick reset.
6. Phoenix Suns
Chance to be next: 5.3%
Average roster age: 27.8 (16th)
2025-26 odds: +50000 (0.2% implied)
Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal departed after a 36-46 season. Devin Booker remains the centerpiece alongside newcomers Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks.
7. New Orleans Pelicans
Chance to be next: 4.6%
Average roster age: 26.1 (5th)
2025-26 odds: +50000 (0.2% implied)
Zion Williamson’s health remains the key variable for a roster that slipped from 49 wins to 21 last season.
8. Brooklyn Nets
Chance to be next: 4.4%
Average roster age: 25.9 (3rd)
2025-26 odds: +100000 (0.1% implied)
Brooklyn added Michael Porter Jr. and four first-round picks but will rely heavily on a young, largely untested group.
T-9. Charlotte Hornets
Chance to be next: 2.9%
Average roster age: 26.4 (7th)
2025-26 odds: +100000 (0.1% implied)
LaMelo Ball, Collin Sexton, Brandon Miller and rookie Kon Knueppel headline a guard-heavy unit still seeking its first playoff berth since 2016.
T-9. Utah Jazz
Chance to be next: 2.9%
Average roster age: 27.8 (15th)
2025-26 odds: +100000 (0.1% implied)
Lauri Markkanen and No. 5 pick Ace Bailey provide hope, but Utah returns to rebuilding mode after moving Collin Sexton to Charlotte.
The simulations indicate that even though dynasties once dominated the NBA landscape, today’s environment offers a realistic opening for at least one long-suffering club to celebrate its first championship before the decade closes.
Source: ESPN
