NBA Forecast: Which Teams Could Beat—or Miss—ESPN’s Win Projections?
nba-teams-likely-to-top-or-fall-below-2025-26-espn-predictions
ESPN’s annual Summer Forecast pegged projected records for all 30 NBA clubs ahead of the 2025-26 season. History suggests the consensus can be off the mark, so senior writer Tim Bontemps singled out 10 teams he believes could either eclipse or trail those expectations.
Five teams positioned to outperform
Oklahoma City Thunder — forecast: 64-18
Oklahoma City’s 65-17 campaign last season placed the franchise among just 22 teams ever to reach 65 victories. Only the mid-1990s Bulls and the 2014-17 Warriors matched or exceeded that total the following year. The defending champions return the entire core, expect more availability from Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein (a combined 75 games lost last year) and face an Eastern Conference weakened by major injuries in Indiana and Boston. OKC went 29-1 against the East and posted a 59-10 mark when either center played—good for a 70-win pace.
LA Clippers — forecast: 50-32
After surprising with 50 victories while Paul George departed for Philadelphia and Kawhi Leonard logged 37 games, Los Angeles retooled by turning Norman Powell, Amir Coffey, Ben Simmons and Patty Mills into Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, John Collins and Brook Lopez. Only three regulars are under 30, yet the depth assembled by coach Tyronn Lue gives the Clippers a chance to top last season’s total.
Golden State Warriors — forecast: 48-34
Golden State went 22-5 in games Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler III shared the floor. Management still must resolve Jonathan Kuminga’s restricted free agency, but expected additions Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton and Gary Payton II should bolster an aging group. If Curry, Butler and Draymond Green stay reasonably healthy, Bontemps sees an upward move.
Miami Heat — forecast: 39-43
Miami stumbled to 37-45 and exited in the play-in round, yet added Powell, fresh off 21.8 points per game with the Clippers. A 14-28 record in clutch situations dragged the Heat to the NBA’s third-worst close-game mark. With a softer East, the club has room to climb.
Toronto Raptors — forecast: 33-49
Toronto’s 30-52 finish came while prioritizing draft odds and awaiting Brandon Ingram’s arrival after a midseason deal. Now operating in the luxury tax and targeting a rapid rebound, the Raptors are viewed as unlikely to linger near the high-30s loss column barring extensive injuries.
Five teams that may fall short
Minnesota Timberwolves — forecast: 51-31
Minnesota has cleared 51 wins only twice (2004, 2024). The club lost Nickeil Alexander-Walker in free agency and now counts on youngsters Terrence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark while still depending on 37-year-old Mike Conley and 33-year-old Rudy Gobert. Backup center Naz Reid cannot replicate Gobert’s defensive impact, and 2024 No. 8 pick Rob Dillingham remains unproven at point guard.
Detroit Pistons — forecast: 47-35
A leap from 14 to 44 wins, an All-NBA turn by Cade Cunningham and the franchise’s first playoff victory since 2008 set the bar high. Off-season swaps—Duncan Robinson for Tim Hardaway Jr., Caris LeVert for Malik Beasley, and a healthy Jaden Ivey replacing Dennis Schroder—keep Detroit young. Bontemps sees a top-six seed within reach even without adding three more wins.
Dallas Mavericks — forecast: 44-38
Dallas enters with rookie forward Cooper Flagg, towering lineups, fallout from trading Luka Doncic and an uncertain timetable for Kyrie Irving after a March ACL tear. D’Angelo Russell is the lone reliable ball-handler, and Anthony Davis is recovering from a groin injury and summer retina surgery. In a crowded West, 44 wins look ambitious.
San Antonio Spurs — forecast: 44-38
Victor Wembanyama already anchors the league’s top defense, but first-year head coach Mitch Johnson must fit De’Aaron Fox, rookie Dylan Harper and fellow newcomer Stephon Castle—three questionable shooters—around the 7-4 star. Until that perimeter puzzle is solved, skepticism on 44 wins persists.
Portland Trail Blazers — forecast: 39-43
Portland’s late-season push boosted last year’s total to 36 wins, often against resting opponents. Anfernee Simons became Jrue Holiday in an off-season trade, pairing the veteran with Jerami Grant and a youthful core of Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe and rookie center Donovan Clingan. The Blazers were tied for the NBA’s No. 4 defense after Jan. 15, but sustaining that level—and adding wins—inside a relentless conference remains a question.
The projections will begin to play out when training camps open later in the fall.
Source: ESPN
