NBA playoff picture tightens at halfway mark as Thunder cool off and challengers emerge
nba-midseason-trends-2026
The NBA reached its 41-game midpoint this week, and the landscape looks far less settled than it did a month ago. Oklahoma City’s blistering start has slowed, New York’s grip on the East has loosened, and several unexpected teams are positioning themselves for deep postseason runs.
Thunder drop from historic pace
The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder opened 24-1 with a plus-17.2 net rating but have gone 12-7 since the NBA Cup semifinals loss to San Antonio. Over that span they rank 28th in three-point accuracy at 32.5%, and opponents are hitting 38% from beyond the arc, fourth highest in the league.
Injuries have added to the slide. Jalen Williams re-injured his hamstring after returning from offseason wrist surgery, and center Isaiah Hartenstein remains sidelined. Even so, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) still gives Oklahoma City a 61% chance to repeat, though oddsmakers list the field as the favorite at plus-115.
Nuggets, Spurs and Rockets eye opportunity
Denver has stayed afloat without Nikola Jokić, posting a 7-4 record while the three-time MVP nurses a hyperextended left knee. Peyton Watson has averaged 22.5 points during that stretch, and reserves Jalen Pickett and Zeke Nnaji have supplied unexpected depth. San Antonio owns three wins over the Thunder this season, and Houston forced double overtime on opening night before falling by 20 in last week’s rematch.
Pistons surge, Knicks stumble in the East
Detroit leads the conference and owns its best defense, yet ranks 26th in made threes and is searching for secondary scoring before the trade deadline. Cade Cunningham carries a 30% usage rate but sits 16th in true shooting percentage among 18 high-usage players.
New York, fresh off the NBA Cup title, has fallen six games behind the Pistons and now trails Boston for the No. 2 seed. The Knicks’ plus-3.5 point differential is third in the East, and their defense sits 17th league-wide, mirroring last season’s ranking.
Clippers and Cavaliers lurk as wild cards
Los Angeles has rebounded from a 6-21 start to win 12 of its past 14. Kawhi Leonard is averaging 29 points on 50/40/94 shooting since Nov. 23 and 32.7 points during the 12-2 run. Leonard was sent home from the current trip with left knee irritation, and projections show only an 18% chance the Clippers reach the 7-8 play-in slot and a 3% chance they avoid the play-in entirely.
Cleveland, tied for sixth in the East, possesses the conference’s fourth-best point differential despite ranking 26th in shotmaking over expected. Donovan Mitchell continues to shoulder a heavy load while Darius Garland, Lonzo Ball and others shoot below career norms.
Banchero searches for form in Orlando
Magic forward Paolo Banchero, 23, is averaging five fewer points than last season and remains below league efficiency despite reduced usage. Orlando has posted better net ratings with him off the floor in each of his four seasons. However, after a December groin strain, Banchero is up to 22.8 points, 9.5 rebounds and 6.1 assists on league-average true shooting in January, offering signs of a rebound.
The second half begins with Oklahoma City atop the Western standings but no longer invincible, Detroit pacing the East yet still unproven, and a handful of teams—healthy or not—preparing to test the favorites when the playoffs arrive in April.
Source: ESPN
