TITLE: Holiday matchups spotlight bright spots and red flags for NBA’s Christmas Day contenders
SLUG: nba-christmas-teams-hope-concern-2025-26
CONTENT:
The NBA’s five-game Christmas schedule offered a mid-season snapshot of ten clubs with championship aspirations. A review of each participant’s current profile reveals one statistic fueling optimism and another tempering expectations as the 2025-26 campaign reaches its midpoint.
Oklahoma City Thunder (26-5, 64.4% chance to reach Finals)
Reason for optimism – 9.9: The Thunder are surrendering 9.9 points fewer per 100 possessions than league average, eclipsing the modern defensive record set by the 2003-04 Spurs (-8.8).
Reason for concern – 12%: Only 12% of Oklahoma City’s first 25 games came against Detroit, New York or the West’s top six. The club is 3-4 with a minus-0.6 differential versus that elite tier and 23-1 with a plus-18.2 margin against everyone else.
New York Knicks (21-9, 35.7%)
Reason for optimism – 40%: Wings Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart are hitting 40% of their three-point attempts, up from 35.7% last year.
Reason for concern – 40%: Center Mitchell Robinson is converting 40% at the free-throw line after a brief hot streak; he is a career 39% postseason shooter from the stripe.
Denver Nuggets (21-8, 12.7%)
Reason for optimism – ‑1.1: Denver’s non-Nikola Jokić minutes sit at only minus-1.1 points per 100 possessions, far better than the previous four seasons, thanks to newcomers Jonas Valančiūnas, Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr.
Reason for concern – 12%: Opponents take a league-high 12% of their shots from the corners and convert 37%, contributing to the Nuggets’ 17th-ranked defense.
Houston Rockets (18-10, 12.4%)
Reason for optimism – 43%: Houston’s offensive rebounding rate is 43% above league average, the best relative mark on record since data began in 1973-74.
Reason for concern – 26%: Amen Thompson owns a 26% effective field-goal rate on jumpers, worst among 174 qualified players; Alperen Şengün ranks 163rd at 42%, creating spacing issues late in games.
Cleveland Cavaliers (17-15, 9.9%)
Reason for optimism – 2: Only two Eastern teams have fewer than 10 losses, leaving the Cavaliers just 1.5 games from a top-four seed despite a rocky start.
Reason for concern – $22 million: Cleveland sits more than $22 million above the second tax apron, restricting in-season trades and buyout options.
San Antonio Spurs (23-7, 6.1%)
Reason for optimism – 101.7: With Victor Wembanyama on the floor, San Antonio allows just 101.7 points per 100 possessions, better than Oklahoma City’s league-leading team rate.
Reason for concern – 28.8%: Rookie guards Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper are shooting a combined 28.8% from three, a potential postseason target for packed-in defenses.
Golden State Warriors (16-15, 1.2%)
Reason for optimism – 111.0: Golden State owns the West’s second-best defensive rating at 111.0, trailing only Oklahoma City.
Reason for concern – 42: The Warriors average 42 paint points per game, second-fewest in the league and their lowest mark of the Stephen Curry era.
Minnesota Timberwolves (20-10, 1.4%)
Reason for optimism – 11.2: The starting five of Donte DiVincenzo, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert posts a plus-11.2 net rating across a league-high 264 minutes.
Reason for concern – 18.4: Minnesota’s 18.4% clutch turnover rate is the NBA’s worst, dwarfing its 13th-ranked overall turnover percentage.
Los Angeles Lakers (19-10, 1.1%)
Reason for optimism – 10-0: The Lakers are unbeaten in 10 clutch games, buoyed by Luka Dončić, LeBron James, Austin Reaves and the league’s top free-throw differential.
Reason for concern – 4.9: Cleaning the Glass pegs Los Angeles at 14.1 expected wins, 4.9 fewer than its actual total, the NBA’s largest positive gap. The club owns a minus-0.5 point differential.
Dallas Mavericks (12-20, 0.0%)
Reason for optimism – 12.0: Since undrafted rookie Ryan Nembhard became the starting point guard on November 28, Dallas’ offensive rating has climbed by 12.0 points per 100 possessions, lifting the team to a 7-6 mark over that span.
Reason for concern – 98: Center Dereck Lively II has appeared in only 98 of a possible 246 regular-season games through three years after season-ending foot surgery limited him to seven contests in 2025-26.
The contrasting numbers underscore how even holiday showcase teams must shore up weaknesses to sustain championship bids as the season progresses.
Source: ESPN
