NBA MVP Odds Swing After Jokic Knee Injury
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Nikola Jokic’s knee injury on Monday night is expected to keep the Denver Nuggets star out for roughly a month, sharply reshaping the 2025-26 NBA Most Valuable Player race.
With Jokic sidelined, DraftKings Sportsbook moved Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to a commanding position at -450. Dallas guard Luka Doncic is the only player within range at +370, while Detroit’s Cade Cunningham sits at +5000 and New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson is listed at +6000.
Injuries keep thinning the field
The MVP board has been shrinking since mid-November:
- Nov. 14 — Victor Wembanyama: A left-calf injury cost the San Antonio Spurs rookie about a month, putting him close to the 17-game absence limit for award eligibility.
- Dec. 3 — Giannis Antetokounmpo: A soleus muscle strain forced the Milwaukee Bucks forward to miss most of December, hurting both his candidacy and the Bucks’ record.
- Dec. 30 — Nikola Jokic: The reigning MVP sustained a knee injury that will sideline him until early February.
NBA rules require players to appear in at least 65 games to qualify for postseason awards. Wembanyama and Antetokounmpo are nearing that threshold, and Jokic’s upcoming absence threatens his eligibility as well.
Doncic walking a fine line
Doncic has already missed seven of the Lakers’ first 30 games, a pace that projects to just under 63 appearances—almost identical to his 62.8-game average over the past four seasons. He played only 50 contests last year, so any additional downtime could leave him short of the minimum again.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s durability stands out
After averaging 25.7 missed games from 2020-21 through 2022-23, Gilgeous-Alexander has been on the floor for all but 6.5 games per season over the last two campaigns, finishing second and first in the MVP vote. This season he has missed only one game, giving him a clear path to a second straight trophy—provided he stays healthy.
Long shots waiting in the wings
Should Gilgeous-Alexander suffer an extended absence, the market could flip overnight. Oddsmakers list Cade Cunningham at 50-1, Jalen Brunson at 60-1, Jaylen Brown and Tyrese Maxey at 100-1, and Anthony Edwards at 500-1. A prolonged injury to the current favorite would push any of those names toward the top of the board.
For now, the MVP race belongs to Gilgeous-Alexander, but the season’s growing injury list serves as a reminder that futures markets can change without warning.
Source: ESPN
