On Oct. 8, 2025, veteran analyst Kevin Pelton released his annual statistics-based forecast for every NBA club, matching each projected victory total against the current ESPN BET over/under line. The outlook is built on a blend of SCHOENE projections, three seasons of luck-adjusted RAPM data supplied by Krishna Narsu, and a minutes-allocation estimate that factors in recent injury history.
How the West stacks up
1. Oklahoma City Thunder — 59.2 wins (line: 62.5). Pelton’s model still makes Oklahoma City the league favorite but falls a few games short of the market’s lofty target.
2. Golden State Warriors — 56.1 wins (line: 46.5). A full year of Jimmy Butler III and a deep 11-man rotation drive the biggest positive gap in the projection.
3. Denver Nuggets — 52.2 wins (line: 53.5). The forecast mirrors the betting number, with slight skepticism over the newcomers surrounding Nikola Jokić.
4. LA Clippers — 49.7 wins (line: 47.5). An optimistic 66-game estimate for Kawhi Leonard lifts Los Angeles above its posted total.
5. Houston Rockets — 46.9 wins (line: 53.5). Fred VanVleet’s torn ACL and questions about Kevin Durant’s recent on-court impact create the largest West under.
6. Los Angeles Lakers — 45.8 wins (line: 48.5). Public enthusiasm again exceeds the model, which highlights the roster’s heavy reliance on Luka Dončić.
7. Memphis Grizzlies — 44.6 wins (line: 40.5). Strong point-differential metrics and a still-talented core offset the loss of Desmond Bane; Ja Morant is week-to-week with an ankle sprain.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves — 43.7 wins (line: 49.5). After last year’s surprise, the projection cools on Minnesota, citing back-court depth concerns.
9. Dallas Mavericks — 43.6 wins (line: 40.5). Despite roster fit questions and Kyrie Irving’s knee absence, depth pushes the club over its line.
10. Sacramento Kings — 43.5 wins (line: 34.5). A 40-win season in 2024-25 and roster upgrades suggest the consensus may be underrating Sacramento.
11. San Antonio Spurs — 40.1 wins (line: 44.5). The forecast applauds Victor Wembanyama’s rise but flags limited help around him.
12. Portland Trail Blazers — 35.8 wins (line: 33.5). Jrue Holiday’s arrival offsets second-half shooting luck regression, nudging Portland above the number.
13. Phoenix Suns — 34.7 wins (line: 31.5). Post-Durant, Phoenix still projects slightly higher, mainly because the club lacks motivation to tank.
14. New Orleans Pelicans — 32.6 wins (line: 30.5). Better overall health and no draft-pick incentive keep New Orleans from the West cellar.
15. Utah Jazz — 20.2 wins (line: 18.5). History shows extremely low lines usually go over; Walker Kessler and Lauri Markkanen help the cause.
The picture in the East
1. Cleveland Cavaliers — 50.1 wins (line: 56.5). Expected regression and early injuries to Darius Garland and Max Strus trim last season’s 64-win pace.
2. Orlando Magic — 49.9 wins (line: 51.5). The model remains bullish, with new guard Desmond Bane adding to an already favorable outlook.
3. New York Knicks — 47.2 wins (line: 53.5). A coaching change to Mike Brown and likely heavier injury tolls temper projections after last year’s health luck.
4. Indiana Pacers — 45.9 wins (line: 38.5). Even without Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana’s front-court replacements grade well enough to stay above .500.
5. Boston Celtics — 45.6 wins (line: 40.5). Eight above-average players keep Boston competitive despite Jayson Tatum’s season-long Achilles absence.
6. Milwaukee Bucks — 44.5 wins (line: 42.5). Giannis Antetokounmpo plus new center Myles Turner push Milwaukee ahead of its total.
7. Atlanta Hawks — 44.3 wins (line: 46.5). Offseason gains are noted, but the forecast still places Atlanta outside the East’s top four.
8. Detroit Pistons — 42.6 wins (line: 45.5). Malik Beasley’s departure and heavier reliance on younger players point to a slight step back.
9. Toronto Raptors — 40.7 wins (line: 38.5). A healthier roster and inexpensive depth pieces like Sandro Mamukelashvili support a modest over.
10. Miami Heat — 40.3 wins (line: 38.5). Norman Powell’s arrival cushions the blow of Tyler Herro’s early-season absence.
11. Philadelphia 76ers — 38.4 wins (line: 42.5). Durability doubts for Joel Embiid and the loss of Guerschon Yabusele drive the model’s caution.
12. Chicago Bulls — 38.0 wins (line: 31.5). Three straight seasons around 40 victories and a 17-10 post-break mark underpin a sizable positive gap.
13. Charlotte Hornets — 28.5 wins (line: 26.5). A healthier campaign and the addition of Collin Sexton should prevent another 19-win season.
14. Brooklyn Nets — 17.6 wins (line: 20.5). Heavy reliance on rookies and only two above-average veterans place Brooklyn near the bottom.
15. Washington Wizards — 14.2 wins (line: 20.5). Pelton’s lowest team projection since 2010 follows the franchise’s decision to trade away every established contributor.
The projections will be tracked throughout the 2025-26 schedule to measure accuracy against both betting expectations and actual win totals.
Source: ESPN
