Introducing ESPN’s 2025-26 Basketball Power Index: Oklahoma City Tops Preseason List
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ESPN unveiled its Basketball Power Index (BPI) projections for the 2025-26 NBA season on Oct. 18, outlining expected win totals and postseason probabilities for 23 franchises. The model updates daily once games begin and goes beyond traditional over-under totals by estimating playoff seeding odds, conference-finals chances and other benchmarks.
Western Conference
Projected top six seeds
1. Oklahoma City Thunder – BPI assigns a 98% probability of a top-four finish, the highest figure in either conference. Twelve Thunder players posted positive net-points ratings last year, compared with five for their 2025 Finals opponent, Indiana.
2. Denver Nuggets – A 67% chance of securing home court in the first round. Upgrades include Cam Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valančiūnas, narrowing last season’s large starter-bench gap (plus-7.6 for starters, minus-3.8 for reserves).
3. Houston Rockets – BPI gives Houston a 49% likelihood of finishing in the top three even after Fred VanVleet’s season-ending injury, citing depth and the arrival of Kevin Durant.
4. LA Clippers – The NBA’s oldest roster receives a 21% chance of reaching the West finals. Eight rotation players are at least 30, but depth behind Kawhi Leonard could mitigate injury absences.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves – Despite only a 3% title probability, Minnesota has a 63% chance to avoid the play-in. BPI questions whether Anthony Edwards can maintain last season’s near-40% three-point accuracy.
6. Golden State Warriors – A 25% shot at a top-four seed and 51% at the top six. The index remains cautious until the core of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and newcomer Jimmy Butler shows sustained on-court chemistry.
Play-in range
7. Memphis Grizzlies – Model projects a 51% playoff chance, outpacing Las Vegas’ 43%. Ja Morant’s availability remains the swing factor.
8. Los Angeles Lakers – Seventy-percent odds of bypassing the play-in as Luka Dončić shoulders scoring while LeBron James recovers until mid-November.
9. Dallas Mavericks – Overall playoff probability sits at 51%, but jumps if No. 1 draft pick Cooper Flagg reaches All-Star-level impact (plus-2 net points per 48 minutes).
10. San Antonio Spurs – Roughly a coin flip for postseason play. Victor Wembanyama’s elite defense is offset by durability concerns and turnover issues.
Eastern Conference
Projected top six seeds
1. Cleveland Cavaliers – A 51% chance to reach the conference finals after consecutive shortfalls. Donovan Mitchell’s on/off impact remains pivotal.
2. New York Knicks – Ninety-five-percent odds of a top-six berth and 49% for a top-two slot, assuming minimal disruption under a new coach.
3. Orlando Magic – Fifty-six-percent probability of home court in round one. Continued growth from Paolo Banchero, who played at plus-3.2 net points post-deadline last year, is essential.
4. Atlanta Hawks – Eighty-five-percent chance to avoid the play-in. BPI forecasts a top-10 defense if Kristaps Porziņģis appears in 50–60 games alongside Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
5. Philadelphia 76ers – Ninety-percent playoff likelihood with Joel Embiid projected for 64 games. The model treats last season’s statistical dip as a probable anomaly.
6. Detroit Pistons – Expected to repeat last year’s 44 wins and carry a 30% chance of reaching the second round, led by Cade Cunningham’s improved playmaking.
Play-in range
7. Milwaukee Bucks – Only a 13% shot at the East finals following the departures of Damian Lillard and Brook Lopez. BPI also flags Myles Turner’s inconsistency and Kevin Porter Jr.’s unlikely repeat of late-season form.
8. Boston Celtics – A 50% playoff probability without injured Jayson Tatum. Jaylen Brown is projected to lose efficiency as he assumes a larger offensive load.
9. Indiana Pacers – With Tyrese Haliburton out for the season, postseason odds fall to 36%. Fast tempo is expected to benefit Pascal Siakam, while Bennedict Mathurin remains a variable.
10. Toronto Raptors – Highest play-in likelihood in the East at 57%. Last season’s late-schedule surge came against the league’s weakest post-deadline slate, tempering expectations for Immanuel Quickley, Jakob Poeltl, Scottie Barnes and Ja’Kobe Walter.
High-variance clubs
Portland Trail Blazers (West No. 11) – A 15% play-in chance hinges on Deni Avdija sustaining his post-deadline improvement to plus-3.7 net points per 48 minutes.
Chicago Bulls (East No. 12) – Playoff probability sits at 6%, though a full season of Josh Giddey at plus-2 could elevate Chicago into the play-in picture.
Charlotte Hornets (East No. 13) – Model assigns just a 1.4% chance at the postseason despite upside from LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Brandon Miller and rookie Kon Knueppel. Bench depth remains the limiting factor.
The Basketball Power Index will refresh daily throughout the 2025-26 campaign, adjusting forecasts as injuries, trades and on-court performance reshape the league landscape.
Source: ESPN
