How Remaining Schedule Could Influence Three Critical NBA Playoff Races
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A month remains in the 2025-26 regular season, and three separate playoff battles are tightening: two open top-four spots in the Western Conference, the No. 2 seed in the East and the fight to stay out of the Eastern play-in. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) outlines how each contender’s remaining schedule could determine the final standings.
Western Conference – Two Home-Court Berths
The Thunder and Spurs are virtually locked into the West’s top two positions, leaving four clubs to chase slots 3 and 4.
Houston Rockets
Projected record: 51-31 | 55% chance at top-four
Schedule difficulty: 10th hardest
Tanking opponents left: 4
Key dates: Lakers (Mar 16, 18), Timberwolves (Mar 25, Apr 10), Nuggets (Mar 11)
Houston wins by an average of +4.7 points, buoyed by a league-best +4.1 from offensive rebounds and a No. 7 ranking in transition. Turnovers (15.7 per game) remain a concern.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected record: 50-32 | 52% chance
Schedule difficulty: 4th hardest
Tanking opponents left: 3
Key dates: Lakers (Mar 12), Clippers (Mar 13), Warriors (Mar 15), Rockets (Mar 25, Apr 10)
Minnesota is top-10 in nearly every extended four-factor metric, with transition offense its lone top-five category. Anthony Edwards ranks top-15 league-wide in multiple net-points measures.
Denver Nuggets
Projected record: 50-32 | 59% chance
Schedule difficulty: 12th hardest
Tanking opponents left: 5
Key dates: Rockets (Mar 11), Lakers (Mar 14), Spurs (Apr 4, 12), Warriors (Mar 29)
Since Nikola Jokić returned from a wrist issue, Denver’s offense has slipped from first to sixth, and his net points per 48 minutes have fallen to seventh.
Los Angeles Lakers
Projected record: 48-34 | 31% chance
Schedule difficulty: 6th hardest
Tanking opponents left: 5
Key dates: Rockets (Mar 16, 18), Nuggets (Mar 14), Timberwolves (Mar 12)
Coach JJ Redick continues to juggle lineups built around Luka Dončić, LeBron James and Austin Reaves; combinations featuring all three have yet to click consistently.
Eastern Conference – Race for the No. 2 Seed
Boston, New York and Cleveland are grouped tightly behind conference-leading Detroit.
Boston Celtics
Projected record: 53-29 | 53% chance at No. 2
Schedule difficulty: hardest remaining
Tanking opponents left: 2
Key dates: Thunder (twice), Spurs (once), Knicks (Apr 9)
Jayson Tatum’s return from injury boosts Boston’s odds despite a daunting slate.
New York Knicks
Projected record: 53-29 | 38% chance
Schedule difficulty: 24th hardest
Tanking opponents left: 6
Key dates: Rockets, Hornets, Clippers, Celtics (Apr 9)
Inconsistency from OG Anunoby, Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges keeps New York volatile.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected record: 52-30 | 11% chance
Schedule difficulty: 29th hardest
Tanking opponents left: 7
Key dates: No head-to-head games with Boston or New York
The Cavs own the league’s second-best schedule-adjusted offense but are focused more on overall health than specific seeding.
Eastern Conference – Fight to Avoid the Play-In
Four teams are battling for the final two guaranteed playoff positions.
Toronto Raptors
Projected record: 45-37 | 54% chance at top-six
Schedule difficulty: 17th hardest
Tanking opponents left: 4
Key dates: Heat (Apr 10, 12), Magic (Mar 29)
Jakob Poeltl’s recent return supplies needed size for a club that is 6-17 against BPI top-10 foes.
Philadelphia 76ers
Projected record: 44-38 | 24% chance
Schedule difficulty: 21st hardest
Tanking opponents left: 6
Key dates: Heat (Mar 30), Hornets, Timberwolves, Rockets, Pistons
Tyrese Maxey’s transition scoring swings outcomes; Joel Embiid’s availability remains uncertain, and Paul George is suspended until late March.
Orlando Magic
Projected record: 44-38 | 50% chance
Schedule difficulty: 14th hardest
Tanking opponents left: 5
Key dates: Raptors (Mar 29), Heat (Mar 27), Hornets, Hawks (twice)
Paolo Banchero has generated +5.3 net points per 48 minutes against tanking teams since the trade deadline but ranks as the NBA’s most inconsistent performer over the past three seasons.
Miami Heat
Projected record: 45-37 | 55% chance
Schedule difficulty: 22nd hardest
Tanking opponents left: 4
Key dates: Raptors (Apr 10, 12), Hornets, 76ers (Mar 30), Magic (Mar 27)
Head coach Erik Spoelstra’s squads have a history of late-season surges, including the 2023 run from the play-in to the Finals.
Regular-season play ends April 12, after which the top six teams in each conference advance directly to the postseason while seeds 7-10 enter the play-in tournament.
Source: ESPN.com
