Fantasy analyst issues caution list for 2025-26 drafts
fantasy-basketball-do-not-draft-list-2025-26
ESPN senior fantasy writer Eric Karabell released his annual “do not draft” advisory on Oct. 3, warning managers to avoid several high-profile NBA players whose average draft positions (ADPs) do not reflect injury history or declining production.
High talent, low availability
LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets (ADP: third–fourth round) has logged only 105 games over the past three seasons and ended 2024-25 with ankle and wrist surgeries. Despite averages of 25.2 points, 7.4 assists and 3.8 three-pointers, Karabell views the guard’s durability risk as too steep for an early-round pick.
Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies (ADP 28.4) appeared in 59 games across two campaigns amid injuries and off-court issues. His scoring, rebounding and assists slipped last season, prompting Karabell to label a third-round investment “too optimistic.”
Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans (ADP 35.3) played just 30 games last year and has never provided elite rebounding, shot-blocking or free-throw accuracy. The analyst recommends fading the forward—along with similarly fragile Clippers star Kawhi Leonard—inside the first five rounds.
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers (ADP 56.6) managed 19 games in 2024-25 because of a persistent left-knee problem. Karabell expects the reigning MVP’s ADP to rise as camp opens but advises managers to let another team assume the risk, noting safer center options such as Myles Turner and Jalen Duren.
Already sidelined
Kyrie Irving, Dallas Mavericks is recovering from a torn left ACL suffered in March. Karabell cautions against spending a top-100 pick on the veteran guard, who has not topped 60 games since 2018-19 and may not return until after the All-Star break.
Dejounte Murray, New Orleans Pelicans tore his right Achilles on Dec. 31 and could be out until January. Even upon returning, the 17.5-point scorer may need time to regain form.
Jayson Tatum (Celtics), Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers) and Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) each ruptured an Achilles during the playoffs. Karabell expects all three to miss the entire season, eliminating any stash appeal.
Additional red flags
Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers averaged 16.2 points on 13.9 field-goal attempts in his first season with the club and underwent summer knee surgery. Karabell projects the veteran’s ADP to slide beyond pick 100.
Mikal Bridges, New York Knicks has never missed an NBA game, yet limited rebounds, assists and defensive stats make his Round 5 ADP “generous,” according to Karabell.
Kristaps Porzingis, Atlanta Hawks joins a roster dominated by Trae Young and emerging center Onyeka Okongwu. Karabell doubts the big man will approach 20 points or seven rebounds per game.
John Collins, Los Angeles Clippers produced 19.2 points and 8.2 rebounds in 40 games for Utah last season, but faces a crowded offense featuring James Harden, Bradley Beal, Kawhi Leonard and Ivica Zubac.
Jrue Holiday, Portland Trail Blazers holds a post-10th-round ADP, yet Karabell expects the veteran guard’s numbers to stay below his Milwaukee peak, especially if Portland trades him mid-season.
Rookie expectations
Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg is the lone first-year player Karabell expects to make an immediate fantasy impact. He advises tempering expectations for fellow rookies Dylan Harper (Spurs), VJ Edgecombe (76ers) and others, noting that most newcomers struggle to post reliable value in Year 1.
Karabell stresses that every draft is about value, but the players on his list carry costs he considers unjustified given their health concerns or situational limitations.
Source: ESPN
