New research suggests that the slow starts endured by several high-profile NBA newcomers this fall had more to do with unfamiliar teammates than declining skills.
During the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in March, former ESPN analyst Ben Alamar and ESPN’s Dean Oliver analyzed camera-tracking data from every NBA catch-and-shoot attempt between 2016 and 2024. Their study showed that players hitting spot-up shots delivered by a new passer initially performed about 10% worse than they did after 200 shared attempts in the same season—an improvement large enough to lift effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) from 50% to 57.5%.
That learning curve helps explain rocky debuts for guard Desmond Bane with the Orlando Magic, forward Cam Johnson with the Denver Nuggets and center Myles Turner with the Milwaukee Bucks.
Early Numbers Paint a Bleak Picture
Bane averaged 13.9 points and hit just 29% from three in his first eight games—well below his 41% career mark—even after Orlando surrendered four first-round picks and a swap to acquire him. Turner, a 36% career three-point shooter who connected on 40% last season, and Johnson, a 39% career marksman, also opened the schedule among the league’s 15 worst long-range shooters through Halloween.
League-wide, the 53 players who switched teams last summer shot 27% from beyond the arc in their debut games and 33% over their first four contests before trending upward.
Rapid Recovery for Some, Slower for Others
Johnson has since climbed to 41% from deep, and Turner sits at 39%. Bane’s three-point rate remains at 32%, still the lowest of his career, but his overall production has surged: 22.5 points, 5.2 assists and 5.0 rebounds over his past 13 outings while Orlando has gone 10-3. He posted consecutive 37-point performances in his last two games.
Familiarity Also Affects Distributors
Alamar and Oliver’s work indicates that passers face an adjustment period, too. Veteran point guards who changed teams—Chris Paul, D’Angelo Russell, Tyus Jones, Dennis Schroder and Anfernee Simons—have all seen reduced roles or bench stints, while only Jrue Holiday has thrived as a full-time starter for a new club. Combo guards Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Atlanta Hawks) and Russell Westbrook (Sacramento Kings) have fared better.
Continuity Still Winning Early
Teams retaining more than 85% of last season’s minutes are collectively pacing about one win ahead of preseason over/under projections through roughly 20 games. Franchises that brought back fewer than 60% of their rosters are averaging more than three wins below expectations.
With evidence mounting that chemistry develops over hundreds of in-game repetitions—not just training-camp scrimmages—front offices may weigh potential short-term slumps more carefully when pursuing blockbuster deals. For now, Orlando’s patience with Bane appears to be paying off.
Source: ESPN.com
