Key Early Questions for 16 NBA Contenders One Month Into the 2025-26 Season
SLUG: early-questions-nba-contenders-2025-26
CONTENT:
With the 2025-26 NBA calendar roughly six weeks old, the league’s hierarchy is beginning to take shape. Oklahoma City has opened its title defense at 16-1, Detroit has surged to the top tier in the East, and every other projected contender is already addressing flaws that could determine whether a promising start turns into a deep playoff run. ESPN polled its insiders to pinpoint the single biggest issue each of the 16 clubs carrying at least a 1.5% chance to reach the NBA Finals, according to the Basketball Power Index.
Eastern Conference
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta are 9-4 since Trae Young injured his hand Oct. 29, thriving on ball movement and versatile defense. The question now: can Quin Snyder’s pass-heavy system coexist with Young once he returns in mid-December?
Boston Celtics
After trading Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday and seeing Jayson Tatum shelved by a torn Achilles, Boston’s priority may be financial rather than competitive. The club sits about $12 million above the luxury-tax repeater line and could pivot toward trimming salary instead of chasing a low playoff seed.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Last year’s No. 1 seed has slipped outside the league’s top 10 offenses. Three-point accuracy is down to 35.1%, paint touches are scarcer and Donovan Mitchell is logging 20.3 shots a night with Darius Garland limited to three appearances by a toe injury. Restoring 2024-25’s elite efficiency is job one.
Detroit Pistons
First-year coach J.B. Bickerstaff must reintegrate Tobias Harris, Ausar Thompson and Jaden Ivey into a rotation that posted top-three defensive metrics without them. Bickerstaff used a 12-man group against Milwaukee; sustaining both the depth and enough shooting for a unit ranked 21st from deep is delicate work.
Miami Heat
Miami scrapped traditional pick-and-roll, averaging only 15.4 screens per 100 possessions. The experiment pushed the offense from 25th to 13th after adjusting for garbage time, but a middle-of-the-road attack will not win a title unless Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, both coming off injuries, elevate the scoring punch.
New York Knicks
OG Anunoby’s balky hamstring keeps him out at least another week, and Karl-Anthony Towns has yet to settle in, shooting 31.7% from three—10 points below his norm. With road wins scarce and defensive metrics sliding when Towns and Mitchell Robinson share the floor, New York needs quick solutions.
Orlando Magic
Jamahl Mosley’s group defends at an elite level but still leans on streaky shooting. Desmond Bane, acquired to address the league-worst 31.8% mark from last season, is expected to stretch the floor for Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Both stars must also lift their own perimeter percentages to complement the league’s No. 2 defense.
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia’s postseason hopes rest on Joel Embiid and newcomer Paul George staying on the floor. The Sixers are 9-7 despite Embiid’s intermittent knee soreness and George’s delayed debut following offseason surgery. If the All-Stars remain available alongside Tyrese Maxey, rookie VJ Edgecombe and Quentin Grimes, Philadelphia believes it can “stay frisky” in a shallow conference.
Toronto Raptors
Depth, not star power, fuels Toronto’s hot start. Reserve combinations featuring Gradey Dick or Sandro Mamukelashvili own the club’s best net ratings, while high-profile pairings like Brandon Ingram with Scottie Barnes have been outscored. Whether that bench advantage translates once playoff rotations tighten remains uncertain.
Western Conference
Denver Nuggets
Denver owns the NBA’s No. 2 offense and a plus-9.7 net rating, yet offseason pickup Cameron Johnson is averaging only 9.4 points on 33.3% from deep—nearly 10 points under his career average. With Christian Braun sidelined at least six weeks (ankle), Johnson’s bounce-back is critical.
Golden State Warriors
Steve Kerr tracks turnovers relentlessly: Golden State is 8-1 when it wins that battle, 1-8 when it doesn’t. After an NBA-high 12 road games and five back-to-backs in the opening month, a lighter schedule and added practice time are expected to curb giveaways for the 9-9, eighth-place Warriors.
Houston Rockets
Houston boasts the league’s best offense despite losing point guard Fred VanVleet before camp. Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün and Amen Thompson share ball-handling, while Jabari Smith Jr. (39.5% on threes) and rookie Reed Sheppard (48.8%) stretch the floor. Health in the frontcourt is paramount to sustain dominant rebounding and second-chance scoring.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Luka Dončić–Anthony Davis swap ignited last season’s turnaround, but this year’s Lakers sit 14th in defense, surrendering 10.1 more points per 100 possessions than Oklahoma City. Conversely, the offense ranks second in true shooting (61.5%) and leads late-game free-throw metrics. Until LeBron James regains peak conditioning and coach JJ Redick finalizes rotations, L.A. may lean on firepower.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Depth propelled Minnesota to consecutive conference-final trips, yet losing Nickeil Alexander-Walker exposed a thin bench now ranked 28th in reserve minutes and scoring. Rookie guards Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. are below 40% effective field-goal rate, leaving 2023 second-rounder Jaylen Clark—shooting 36% from three—as the leading internal option.
Oklahoma City Thunder
At 17-1, Oklahoma City is on pace to break its own season-long point-differential record after last year’s plus-12.9 mark. The Thunder allow 103.1 points per 100 possessions, seven fewer than No. 2 Detroit, while MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has skipped the fourth quarter in more than half the games. All-NBA forward Jalen Williams has yet to play.
San Antonio Spurs
Early injuries have stalled chemistry in San Antonio. Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle recently joined a list that already included De’Aaron Fox, No. 2 pick Dylan Harper and several rotation bigs. Because the absences are minor and occurred early, reserves gained experience, but coach Mitch Johnson acknowledges the lack of court time between Wembanyama and Fox complicates the push toward contention.
These 16 teams have ample time to solve their respective problems, but the next few months will determine who stays in the championship conversation and who falls back to the pack.
Source: ESPN.com
