The Milwaukee Bucks are approaching the Feb. 5 trade deadline with a franchise-defining decision: keep Giannis Antetokounmpo and try to reload this summer, or explore offers for the two-time MVP before he enters the final season of his contract.
Antetokounmpo, 31, has not asked to be moved and has signed extensions with Milwaukee in 2016, 2020 and 2023. Yet after several aggressive roster moves—including the 2023 acquisition of Damian Lillard and last summer’s signing of center Myles Turner—the Bucks are tracking toward their worst record in a decade and could land their first lottery pick since 2015. When Antetokounmpo sits, the club is minus-11.2 points per 100 possessions.
Milwaukee’s current flexibility
General manager Jon Horst can still shop three first-round picks (2026, 2031, 2033) once the 2026 draft begins. Milwaukee’s ledger is bottom-heavy: 11 of 15 players make between $2.3 million and $5.1 million. With Antetokounmpo considered off-limits for now, the most movable salaries ahead of the deadline are Turner ($25.3 million), Bobby Portis ($23.5 million) and Kyle Kuzma ($22.4 million).
Cap space will be scarce this offseason. The Bucks owe Lillard $20.2 million annually through 2029-30 after stretching his deal and are projected to be above the salary cap. Horst will likely have only the $15.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level, the $5.5 million bi-annual and minimum exceptions to add players—unless he trades Turner, Kuzma or Portis.
If Milwaukee listens, who can really bid?
Any club without cap room must send out at least $43.5 million in salary while staying under the first apron. ESPN grouped the league’s other 29 teams into tiers based on assets, financial position and risk.
Teams with the strongest packages
- Atlanta Hawks – Hold the more favorable 2026 first-rounder between New Orleans and Milwaukee plus another protected 2027 swap. Jalen Johnson headlines a young core, but dealing a potential 2026 No. 1 overall pick carries considerable risk. Deal difficulty: 7/10.
- Detroit Pistons – Possess up to four firsts, expiring $26.6 million from Tobias Harris and prospects Ausar Thompson, Jaden Ivey and Ron Holland. Coach J.B. Bickerstaff has cautioned against “skipping steps.” Deal difficulty: 2/10.
- Houston Rockets – Still own Phoenix’s unprotected 2027 first and a 2027 Brooklyn swap after last year’s Kevin Durant trade. Milwaukee would likely demand Amen Thompson. Deal difficulty: 7/10.
- Miami Heat – Can absorb Antetokounmpo’s salary and dangle Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins or Terry Rozier’s $26.6 million expiring deal. Only two first-rounders are available (2030, 2032). Deal difficulty: 7/10.
- Minnesota Timberwolves – Have attractive players (Julius Randle, Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels) but no firsts to trade. Might need a third team for picks. Deal difficulty: 8/10.
- New York Knicks – Cap-heavy and short on picks; could offer Karl-Anthony Towns or a package of OG Anunoby, Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges. Deal difficulty: 8/10.
- Oklahoma City Thunder – Own 11 tradable firsts but would need to break up a defending champion core. Deal difficulty: 7/10.
- Portland Trail Blazers – Control Milwaukee’s unprotected 2029 first plus 2028 and 2030 swaps. Would likely have to part with Deni Avdija; Shaedon Sharpe is difficult to trade due to poison-pill math. Deal difficulty: 4/10.
- San Antonio Spurs – Could headline an offer with Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle or 2025 No. 2 pick Dylan Harper and still wield multiple Hawks picks/swaps. Deal difficulty: 6/10.
- Toronto Raptors – Can send four firsts and include All-Star Scottie Barnes along with veterans Brandon Ingram and RJ Barrett if required. Deal difficulty: 3/10.
Pick-focused bidders
Brooklyn owns 10 tradable firsts (four unprotected) but is rebuilding, while Utah has nine firsts and a Cavaliers 2028 swap yet would need to move at least five smaller contracts to match salary.
Clubs with injured or high-salary stars
Boston, Dallas, Indiana, Golden State and Philadelphia have limited pick pools and complicated money, making a clean deal improbable.
Contracts but few picks
The LA Clippers, Lakers and Orlando Magic can match salary but lack enticing draft capital.
High-risk, high-reward proposals
Charlotte, Chicago, Memphis, New Orleans, Sacramento and Washington possess the ingredients for blockbuster offers yet run the risk of losing Antetokounmpo in free agency.
Low on assets or sidelined
Denver and Phoenix have no first-rounders to trade, while Cleveland is already over the second apron and barred from aggregating contracts.
What comes next?
With Antetokounmpo nursing a calf injury and the Bucks trending toward the lottery, Horst could wait until draft night to leverage three firsts and fresh cap exceptions around his franchise cornerstone. If not, Milwaukee may entertain an unprecedented mid-season deal for the 10-time All-Star.
Source: ESPN
