The 2025 Emirates NBA Cup opens Friday, coinciding with Halloween, and ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) has outlined which clubs are best positioned to advance from the six four-team groups to December’s single-elimination phase in Las Vegas.
East Group A
Favorite: Cleveland Cavaliers (55%)
Contender: Atlanta Hawks (24%)
Lurking: Toronto Raptors (11%), Indiana Pacers (7%), Washington Wizards (3%)
Cleveland enters at 3-2 despite injuries to guards Darius Garland and Max Strus. Atlanta’s slow start and Indiana’s extensive injury list — eight players sat out Wednesday, including Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell and Andrew Nembhard — leave the Cavaliers in command. Atlanta’s home date with Toronto on Nov. 7 could shape the conference wild-card race.
East Group B
Favorite: Philadelphia 76ers (34%)
Contenders: Orlando Magic (25%), Detroit Pistons (20%)
Lurking: Boston Celtics (19%), Brooklyn Nets (2%)
Jayson Tatum’s ruptured right Achilles has scrambled the group’s balance, knocking Boston from front-runner status. Philadelphia is 4-0 but required late rallies against Charlotte and Washington. Orlando, upgraded by offseason addition Desmond Bane, continues to struggle in the half court, ranking 29th at 1.04 points per possession outside transition. Detroit, which hosts both Orlando and Philadelphia, hopes to replicate last season’s 3-0 Cup start before its finale collapse.
East Group C
Favorite: New York Knicks (38%)
Contenders: Milwaukee Bucks (22%), Miami Heat (22%)
Lurking: Chicago Bulls (11%), Charlotte Hornets (7%)
Assistant coach Darvin Ham seeks a third straight Cup title after winning with the 2023 Lakers and 2024 Bucks, but Milwaukee returns without Damian Lillard. New York, which hosts the Bucks on the final night of group play, leads the deepest Eastern quartet. The Hornets have routed Washington and Brooklyn, Chicago has opened 4-0, and Miami owns the conference’s best point differential, limiting wild-card possibilities here.
West Group A
Favorite: Oklahoma City Thunder (66%)
Contender: Minnesota Timberwolves (17%)
Lurking: Sacramento Kings (8%), Utah Jazz (5%), Phoenix Suns (4%)
The reigning NBA champions carry the league’s top BPI rating. Minnesota, likely without Anthony Edwards (hamstring) for Friday’s opener, hosts its first two Cup contests and could be 3-0 when it meets Oklahoma City on Thanksgiving Eve. Utah’s lone non-intra-group win — a shocker over the LA Clippers on opening night — stands out among the remaining challengers.
West Group B
Favorite: LA Clippers (30%)
Contenders: Los Angeles Lakers (25%), Memphis Grizzlies (24%)
Lurking: Dallas Mavericks (15%), New Orleans Pelicans (7%)
The Clippers hold the best preseason projection in the cluster and play only one Cup game outside Los Angeles. The Lakers are expected to start without LeBron James on Friday in Memphis; BPI projects his return between that matchup and the Nov. 25 showdown with the Clippers. Luka Doncic is also sidelined for Dallas’ opener. A Grizzlies victory over the short-handed Lakers could keep Memphis in the hunt until its Nov. 29 visit to the Clippers.
West Group C
Favorite: Denver Nuggets (27%)
Contenders: Houston Rockets (26%), Golden State Warriors (21%), San Antonio Spurs (19%)
Lurking: Portland Trail Blazers (7%)
The most balanced group features Denver and Houston — two of the West’s three teams whose preseason win totals exceeded 50 — plus an unbeaten Spurs squad and a Warriors roster that rates well in advanced metrics. Portland has already upset Golden State, making point differential critical for any wild-card hopeful. Houston’s Thanksgiving Eve trip to Golden State, which doubles as Kevin Durant’s first appearance at Chase Center with the Rockets, and San Antonio’s Nov. 28 visit to Denver may settle the final spot in Las Vegas.
The group stage runs through late November, with eight quarterfinalists advancing to knockout play in December at T-Mobile Arena.
Source: ESPN
