The NBA’s annual race for the Larry O’Brien Trophy rarely involves all 30 franchises at once. ESPN’s Zach Kram has updated his “Now or Later” model to show which teams are under the greatest pressure to win during the 2025-26 campaign and which are better positioned for future success.
How the ranking works
The composite index assigns equal weight to two elements:
- Money score – projected payroll commitments, with the current season weighted most heavily.
- Draft score – the measured value of each club’s future first-round picks, including protections and swap rights.
The club most desperate to win immediately lands at No. 1, while the roster most comfortable playing the long game is slotted at No. 30.
2025-26 “Now or Later” standings
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (last year: 4) – Money 1, Draft 6. Cleveland sits above the second apron and controls none of its next four first-rounders after the Donovan Mitchell deal, underscoring a full win-now posture after a 64-win season that still fell short of the conference finals.
2. Orlando Magic (16) – Money 4, Draft 2. A blockbuster trade for Desmond Bane plus max extensions for Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs vaulted Orlando into immediate contention despite limited playoff credentials.
3. New York Knicks (3) – Money 2, Draft 4. The expensive core of Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns leaves New York short on future picks but locked into an East-title-or-bust year.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves (2) – Money 7, Draft 3. Two straight conference-final losses, limited pick control until 2028 and the steep cost of the Rudy Gobert and Rob Dillingham trades keep Minnesota near the top of the urgency list.
5. Phoenix Suns (1) – Money 13, Draft 1. Kevin Durant is gone, Bradley Beal was waived-and-stretched, and Phoenix dipped below both aprons. The Suns still lack their own first until 2032 and have no clear path to compete this season or in the near term.
6. Denver Nuggets (7) – Money 8, Draft 8. Trading Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson shaved salary, but long-term deals for Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon keep Denver firmly in “win now” mode.
7. Boston Celtics (5) – Money 5, Draft 11. Moving Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday eased cap pressure, yet the looming $479 million owed to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown ensures short-term stakes stay high while Tatum rehabs a torn Achilles.
8. Dallas Mavericks (12) – Money 6, Draft 10. Despite trading Luka Dončić, extensions for Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington suggest a three-to-four-year title plan built around rookie sensation Cooper Flagg.
9. Milwaukee Bucks (6) – Money 17, Draft 5. Stretching Damian Lillard to sign Myles Turner highlights Milwaukee’s all-in attempt to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo happy while lacking control of a first-round pick before 2031.
10. LA Clippers (9) – Money 23, Draft 6. Few guaranteed salaries remain after 2026-27, but four outgoing first-rounders from past trades and the pending Aspiration investigation preserve a top-10 urgency ranking.
11. Golden State Warriors (15) – Money 10, Draft 14. A veteran core led by 37-year-old Stephen Curry still owns nearly every first-rounder, giving Golden State maneuverability for another mid-season splash.
12. Philadelphia 76ers (10) – Money 9, Draft 15. Joel Embiid and Paul George push for immediate moves, yet last year’s 24-win season and a stocked pick cabinet leave Philadelphia straddling two timelines.
13. New Orleans Pelicans (19) – Money 14, Draft 12. Trading an unprotected 2026 first and absorbing Jordan Poole’s salary nudged New Orleans forward, though injuries and a low Vegas win total cloud short-term prospects.
14. Los Angeles Lakers (8) – Money 24, Draft 9. LeBron James seeks urgency, but the franchise appears ready to build gradually around new centerpiece Luka Dončić, with a clean cap sheet after 2027.
15. Toronto Raptors (20) – Money 11, Draft 16(tie). Toronto owns all of its picks and carries multiple hefty player contracts, providing assets for a potential push in the watered-down East.
16. Indiana Pacers (11) – Money 15, Draft 16(tie). With Tyrese Haliburton sidelined by an Achilles tear, Indiana opted for a quiet offseason and retains every future first-rounder.
17. Miami Heat (13) – Money 22, Draft 13. Post-Jimmy Butler, Miami holds ample flexibility and just one lightly protected outgoing first (2027 to Charlotte) while surveying the next star market.
18. San Antonio Spurs (28) – Money 20, Draft 21. An extension for new arrival De’Aaron Fox complements Victor Wembanyama’s long runway, bolstered by multiple favorable swaps with Atlanta.
19. Atlanta Hawks (14) – Money 21, Draft 20. Smart dealings with New Orleans restored draft assets and cap room; a Trae Young extension could push Atlanta back into full win-now mode.
20. Detroit Pistons (21) – Money 26, Draft 16(tie). Detroit controls every future first and carries minimal long-term salary beyond Cade Cunningham, leaving room for an opportunistic swing.
21. Houston Rockets (23) – Money 12, Draft 24. Team-friendly extensions for Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün and Jabari Smith Jr. keep payroll sensible while the club holds valuable 2027 and 2029 Suns picks.
22. Portland Trail Blazers (25) – Money 16, Draft 22. Veteran additions Jrue Holiday and the injured Damian Lillard elevate current competitiveness, but most contracts remain modest and extra picks are banked.
23. Sacramento Kings (17) – Money 19, Draft 23. Zach LaVine’s arrival maintains a veteran wage bill despite De’Aaron Fox’s departure, leaving Sacramento caught between timelines.
24. Oklahoma City Thunder (27) – Money 3, Draft 29. Max extensions for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren raised payroll, yet an unrivaled trove of external picks keeps OKC firmly future-proofed.
25. Chicago Bulls (22) – Money 27, Draft 19. After trading LaVine, Chicago carries one of the league’s lightest payrolls and significant cap space after this season to court marquee talent.
26. Memphis Grizzlies (18) – Money 18, Draft 26. Playoff regulars Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. share the floor with a growing stack of acquired picks, creating strategic tension between present and future.
27. Charlotte Hornets (24) – Money 25, Draft 27. A slow accumulation of single-asset trades has stocked Charlotte’s pick shelf while the current roster projects near the bottom of the standings.
28. Washington Wizards (26) – Money 30, Draft 25. Minimal long-term salary but a limited pick haul leave Washington reliant on potential trade returns for veterans CJ McCollum or Khris Middleton.
29. Utah Jazz (29) – Money 28, Draft 28. Concentrated future pick assets and an owed top-eight-protected 2026 first to OKC keep Utah parked near the league’s basement in both standings and rankings.
30. Brooklyn Nets (30) – Money 29, Draft 30. The deepest war chest of first-rounders from New York, Philadelphia and Denver cements Brooklyn as the NBA’s quintessential win-later project, even with a 2027 swap favoring Houston.
The complete list underscores how financial commitments and draft control shape each franchise’s competitive calendar, setting clear expectations as the 2025-26 season tips off.
Source: ESPN
