One day before the 2025-26 regular season tips off, ESPN’s panel released its annual preview, projecting win totals, playoff odds and key talking points for every franchise.
The survey arrives 120 days after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder outlasted the Indiana Pacers in seven games to capture the championship.
Overall power ranking and projections
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected wins: 57.8 – Playoff odds: 100%.
Main storyline: Can the league’s youngest title team start a dynasty?
Strength: A league-best 106.6 defensive rating last year.
Concern: Guarding against post-title complacency.
Bold forecast: Third 70-win season in NBA history.
2. Denver Nuggets
Projected wins: 50.3 – Playoff odds: 96.1%.
Storyline: Nikola Jokić finally has a fortified bench.
Strength: Three-time MVP in peak form (29.6 PPG, 10.2 APG, 12.7 RPG).
Concern: Defense ranked 21st in 2024-25.
Bold forecast: Jokić plus Jamal Murray or Aaron Gordon both make the All-Star team.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected wins: 54.9 – Playoff odds: 99.9%.
Storyline: Anything short of the conference finals is failure.
Strength: Evan Mobley/Jarrett Allen interior defense.
Concern: Health of Lonzo Ball, Darius Garland, Max Strus and others.
Bold forecast: Overall defense slips below league average.
4. New York Knicks
Projected wins: 50.8 – Playoff odds: 98.8%.
Storyline: Realistic Finals buzz returns to Madison Square Garden.
Strength: Clutch Player of the Year Jalen Brunson.
Concern: Injury history of Mitchell Robinson, Josh Hart’s finger.
Bold forecast: Finish third in East but still reach Finals.
5. Houston Rockets
Projected wins: 50.1 – Playoff odds: 95.8%.
Storyline: Kevin Durant’s impact on a supersized rotation after Fred VanVleet’s knee injury.
Strength: Sheer size; possible lineup with five players 6-10 or taller.
Concern: No natural point guard.
Bold forecast: Alperen Şengün cracks top-10 in MVP voting.
6. LA Clippers
Projected wins: 48.3 – Playoff odds: 91.3%.
Storyline: Kawhi Leonard’s health amid an ongoing league investigation.
Strength: Deepest roster in years after adding Bradley Beal, Brook Lopez, John Collins, Chris Paul.
Concern: Advanced age; six rotation pieces are 32 or older.
Bold forecast: Ivica Zubac finishes top-three in Defensive Player voting.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected wins: 46.8 – Playoff odds: 85%.
Storyline: Anthony Edwards’ push toward MVP candidacy.
Strength: Continuity—seven of top eight scorers return.
Concern: Limited playmaking behind 38-year-old Mike Conley.
Bold forecast: Conley eventually cedes starting job.
8. Golden State Warriors
Projected wins: 45.5 – Playoff odds: 77.2%.
Storyline: Stephen Curry enters season 17 still producing at historic levels.
Strength: Long-standing Curry/Draymond Green/Steve Kerr partnership.
Concern: Winning games during veteran rest nights.
Bold forecast: Secure first-round home-court advantage.
9. Orlando Magic
Projected wins: 47.9 – Playoff odds: 95.5%.
Storyline: Desmond Bane joins Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner in bid to reach second round for first time since 2010.
Strength: Promising three-man core.
Concern: Long injury list, especially Jalen Suggs’ knee.
Bold forecast: Despite Bane, team still finishes bottom-three in 3-point accuracy.
10. Los Angeles Lakers
Projected wins: 47.6 – Playoff odds: 88.1%.
Storyline: LeBron James begins record 23rd season but opens on shelf with sciatica.
Strength: Luka Dončić–Austin Reaves backcourt firepower.
Concern: Center depth if Deandre Ayton underperforms.
Bold forecast: Slip into play-in round.
Middle of the pack
11. Atlanta Hawks – 48 wins, 95.4% odds. Trae Young gets his most talented cast yet, featuring Kristaps Porziņģis and breakout forward Jalen Johnson. Health of Porziņģis remains the wild card.
12. Detroit Pistons – 43.6 wins, 77.8%. Cade Cunningham spearheads a youthful core; Ausar Thompson projected to join twin brother Amen on an All-Defensive team.
13. Dallas Mavericks – 41.9 wins, 50.6%. No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg debuts alongside Anthony Davis while Kyrie Irving rehabs his ACL; offensive creation without Irving is the primary worry.
14. Milwaukee Bucks – 43.8 wins, 79.2%. Giannis Antetokounmpo says he’s happy—for now. Adding Myles Turner strengthens pick-and-roll attack but thins backcourt depth.
15. Boston Celtics – 40.1 wins, 51.8%. Jayson Tatum’s torn Achilles forces a “gap season.” Biggest question: can Jaylen Brown and Derrick White keep the team afloat with a paper-thin front line?
16. San Antonio Spurs – 41.8 wins, 7.1%. Victor Wembanyama eyes an MVP run and a possible quadruple-double while rookie guard Dylan Harper joins the backcourt.
17. Memphis Grizzlies – 42.3 wins, 52.4%. Ja Morant needs a healthy, All-NBA-caliber year; trading Desmond Bane created a scoring void now filled by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
18. Miami Heat – 38.2 wins, 35.3%. Life after Jimmy Butler III shifts the load to Bam Adebayo while Tyler Herro recovers from ankle surgery.
19. Philadelphia 76ers – 45.9 wins, 89.7%. Season once again hinges on Joel Embiid’s knee; rookie VJ Edgecombe headlines a deep guard rotation.
20. Indiana Pacers – 38.2 wins, 34.1%. With Tyrese Haliburton out for the year, Andrew Nembhard assumes primary playmaking duties.
21. Sacramento Kings – 35.1 wins, 7.1%. Trade chatter surrounds DeMar DeRozan and Domantas Sabonis while new coach Doug Christie tries to fix the league’s worst drive defense.
22. Toronto Raptors – 38.2 wins, 34.8%. Debut of Scottie Barnes-Brandon Ingram partnership could push club into top-six in the East if health cooperates.
23. Portland Trail Blazers – 33.9 wins, 4.4%. Defense could crack top five behind Donovan Clingan and Toumani Camara, but a bottom-five offense looms without Anfernee Simons.
24. Chicago Bulls – 32.7 wins, 6.1%. Rookie Matas Buzelis headlines a pace-pushing offense; Josh Giddey aims for near triple-double averages.
Rebuilding tier
25. New Orleans Pelicans – 32.9 wins, 0.1%. Slimmer Zion Williamson returns, yet new brass plans to run a 12-man rotation to hedge against injuries.
26. Phoenix Suns – 31.8 wins, 1.5%. Devin Booker leads a youthful roster after the departures of Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal; projection slots Phoenix 14th in the West.
27. Charlotte Hornets – 29.6 wins, 1.5%. LaMelo Ball’s health continues to define the franchise; rookies Kon Knueppel and Ryan Kalkbrenner expected to make All-Rookie noise.
28. Brooklyn Nets – 24.7 wins, 0.1%. Organization prioritizes draft position and development of five first-round picks, likely resulting in league-high turnovers.
29. Utah Jazz – 23.6 wins, 0% odds. No. 5 pick Ace Bailey projected to lead rookies in scoring while Utah stockpiles future first-rounders.
30. Washington Wizards
Projected wins: 23.8 – Playoff odds: 0%.
Storyline: Total youth movement around No. 2 pick Alex Sarr and scorer Cam Whitmore.
Strength: Up-tempo style should entertain.
Concern: Inexperience at point guard and center.
Bold forecast: Whitmore paces the roster in points per game.
The 2025-26 journey begins Tuesday night.
Source: ESPN
