An Aging Golden State Roster May Still Threaten the West
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Ten years after launching a four-title run, the Golden State Warriors enter the 2025-26 campaign carrying only the seventh-best odds to win the Western Conference, per ESPN BET. Oddsmakers place the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves and LA Clippers ahead of Golden State.
Veteran starting five could make history
If Buddy Hield joins Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Draymond Green and newly signed Al Horford in the opening lineup after Hield’s Dec. 17 birthday, Golden State would become the first team ever to start five players aged 33 or older, according to ESPN Research.
Analytics project a top contender
In contrast to public perception, projections by ESPN analyst Kevin Pelton forecast 56 wins for the Warriors—second-best in the NBA and closer to first place than to the play-in zone. The optimism stems from last season’s late-year surge after acquiring Butler. Beginning with his Feb. 2025 debut, Golden State posted the league’s No. 1 defensive rating and a plus-9.2 net rating, finishing 23-8 down the stretch—equivalent to a 61-win pace.
That momentum stalled in the playoffs when Curry strained a hamstring 13 minutes into Round 2 against Minnesota. Golden State fell in five games, but the front office kept the core intact: 12 of the 13 players who logged postseason minutes return, with Horford replacing Kevon Looney.
Horford adds new dimension
Horford, 39, gives Curry the most prolific three-point-shooting center he has played alongside. The veteran has hit at least 100 triples in each of the past three seasons and owns a 40.9% mark from deep since 2022—best among centers with 100 or more makes. His floor spacing complements Butler and Green while his defense bolsters a frontcourt that now features 15 combined All-Defensive Team selections.
Depth behind the stars
Five Warriors—Curry, Butler, Green, Horford and Brandin Podziemski—rank in the top decile of the league in the advanced metric xRAPM. Behind them, head coach Steve Kerr can rotate Hield, Jonathan Kuminga, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody and De’Anthony Melton on the perimeter, plus rookies Quinten Post and Trayce Jackson-Davis inside. Pelton notes that 11 Warriors grade above league average, tied with Oklahoma City for the NBA high.
Health remains the primary risk
Curry has missed an average of 15 games per season since 2019-20, and Butler has not reached 65 appearances since 2018-19. The offense cratered last year when both sat, though Kuminga’s late-season 24.3-point burst offers hope for non-Curry, non-Butler minutes—or salary ballast for a deadline trade if needed.
Stacked conference, familiar challenge
Even with internal questions, Golden State’s biggest hurdle may be external. Houston lost Fred VanVleet to an ACL tear, Minnesota leans on aging veterans and raw prospects, the Lakers face depth and defensive issues plus an early LeBron James injury, and the Clippers carry similar age concerns along with the Kawhi Leonard investigation. Meanwhile, Golden State has played Oklahoma City close, going 3-4 against the Thunder during the past two seasons; two defeats came in overtime and Curry missed the other two meetings, while Butler did not face them at all.
The Warriors will not open the season as favorites, but with continuity, added shooting from Horford and a full year of the Curry-Butler pairing, they believe the window for another title push remains open.
Source: ESPN
