NBA Circulates ‘3-2-1 Lottery’ Proposal Targeting 2027 Draft
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The NBA has notified team general managers that a new draft lottery format, informally called the “3-2-1 lottery,” has emerged as the league’s leading reform option and could be in place for the 2027 draft if approved by the Board of Governors.
Key points of the proposal
• Sixteen picks, all drawn: The lottery would expand from 14 to 16 teams, and every one of those selections would be determined by the draw.
• Odds distribution: The three worst teams by record would each receive two lottery balls, translating to 5.4% odds of landing the No. 1 pick, and could slide as far as 12th overall. The next seven non-playoff, non-play-in clubs (fourth-worst through 10th-worst) would get three balls apiece, giving them 8.1% odds at the top selection.
• Play-in implications: Teams finishing ninth and 10th in each conference would also receive two balls. The losers of the 7-vs-8 play-in games would collect one ball each, good for 2.7% odds at No. 1.
• Restrictions on traded picks: Clubs would no longer be allowed to protect outgoing draft choices that ultimately land between 12th and 15th.
• Limits on repeat lottery success: A franchise could not win the No. 1 pick in consecutive years or secure top-five selections in three straight drafts.
• Sunset clause: The system would include a provision for review or repeal in 2029.
• Anti-tanking authority: The league would gain broader discretion to penalize teams it believes are intentionally losing, potentially by lowering their lottery odds or altering draft position.
Reaction around the league
Opponents argue the structure might simply shift tanking incentives, encouraging middling teams to drop out of the play-in race or aim for lower seeds. Others warn that consistently poor clubs could finish among the bottom three yet still miss out on a top-ten pick, limiting realistic pathways to improvement.
The NBA can still adjust the plan before presenting it for a formal vote. If the Board of Governors signs off, the “3-2-1 lottery” would debut in time for the 2027 draft.
Source: Hoops Rumors
