The NBA will conduct the 2026 draft lottery on Sunday, May 10, marking the eighth—and potentially final—use of the format introduced in 2019. That system flattened the odds by trimming the worst record’s chance to secure the No. 1 pick from 25.0% to 14.0%, distributing the probability more evenly among the 14 non-playoff teams.
The revised procedure has already produced several surprise jumpers: New Orleans and Memphis vaulted from seventh-best odds to the first two selections in 2019, landing Zion Williamson and Ja Morant. Atlanta reached No. 1 in 2024 despite holding the 10th-best chance, and Dallas did the same from the 11th slot in 2025.
Below are the complete lottery probabilities for 2026, supplied by Tankathon.com. Figures are rounded to one decimal place; “0” indicates a probability below 0.1%.
2026 NBA Draft Lottery Probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wizards | 14.0% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 47.9% | |||||||||
| Pacers* | 14.0% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 27.8% | 20.0% | ||||||||
| Nets | 14.0% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 14.8% | 26.0% | 7.0% | |||||||
| Jazz | 11.5% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 27.1% | 17.9% | 2.4% | ||||||
| Kings | 11.5% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 2.0% | 18.2% | 25.5% | 8.5% | 0.6% | |||||
| Grizzlies | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 29.7% | 20.6% | 3.7% | 0.2% | |||||
| Pelicans* | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 19.8% | 35.6% | 13.8% | 1.4% | 0% | |||||
| Mavericks | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 32.9% | 31.1% | 6.6% | 0.4% | 0% | |||||
| Bulls | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 50.8% | 25.9% | 3.0% | 0.1% | 0% | |||||
| Bucks* | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 65.9% | 19.0% | 1.2% | 0% | 0% | |||||
| Warriors | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 77.6% | 12.6% | 0.4% | 0% | ||||||
| Clippers* | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 86.1% | 6.7% | 0.1% | |||||||
| Heat | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 92.9% | 2.3% | ||||||||
| Hornets | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 97.6% | |||||||||
Pick protections and draft-pick debt
- Indiana’s pick conveys to the Clippers if it falls outside the top four.
- The more favorable of the Pelicans’ and Bucks’ selections will go to Atlanta.
- The less favorable of those two picks will remain with Milwaukee.
- The Clippers’ own pick is owed to Oklahoma City.
The lottery will determine the order of the first 14 selections in the 2026 NBA Draft, which is scheduled for later this summer.
Source: Hoops Rumors
