Just seven franchises are currently expected to finish the 2025-26 NBA season above the luxury tax threshold, according to figures shared by ESPN’s Bobby Marks.
Projected 2025-26 luxury tax bills
Cleveland Cavaliers – $68.7 million
Golden State Warriors* – $67.9 million
New York Knicks – $44.4 million
Los Angeles Lakers* – $22.2 million
Houston Rockets – $7.2 million
Los Angeles Clippers* – $6.7 million
Minnesota Timberwolves – $6 million
Total: $223.1 million
*Denotes teams already subject to repeater tax rates.
The list is much shorter than it was before February’s trade deadline, when 14 clubs were on pace to incur tax penalties. Mid-season moves by the Celtics, Nuggets, Suns, Mavericks, 76ers, Magic and Raptors pushed those teams under the threshold.
Although the number of taxpayers dropped, overall penalties ticked up slightly. Roster additions by the Warriors, Rockets and Timberwolves, along with the Lakers’ expected final signing before Sunday’s deadline, nudged the projected total to its current level.
With half of all tax payments redistributed among non-taxpaying teams, each of the 23 projected non-tax clubs would receive roughly $4.9 million. That figure sat at $4.8 million in February and is on pace to be the league’s smallest distribution since 2020-21. By contrast, 20 non-tax teams collected about $11.5 million each after taxpayers were charged a record $461.2 million in 2024-25.
Marks noted that tax numbers could still fluctuate. Thirty-six players carried 133 individual contract incentives into 2025-26, and 15 of those bonuses remained unresolved entering the final day of the regular season. Certain incentives will not be determined until after the playoffs.
Looking ahead, the Warriors, Lakers and Clippers would all face repeater penalties again in 2026-27 if they remain taxpayers next season. The Bucks, Celtics, Suns and Nuggets—taxpayers in each of the last three years—would also incur repeater rates in 2026-27 unless they stay below the tax line for an entire season beforehand.
Source: Hoops Rumors
