What NBA Insiders Are Tracking as the Playoffs Begin
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The NBA postseason opens this weekend, and front-office executives, coaches and scouts are sorting through late-season trends to determine which ones will matter once the games count for real. ESPN spoke with league personnel about the biggest questions surrounding several contenders and play-in hopefuls.
Lakers banking on 41-year-old LeBron with Doncic, Reaves sidelined
Los Angeles faces the likelihood of starting its first-round series against Houston without Luka Doncic (Grade 2 hamstring strain) and Austin Reaves (Grade 2 oblique strain). Team staff expect both guards to push for a return, but evaluators say the Lakers must prepare as if neither will play.
“They need LeBron to get hot from three and hope the Rockets go cold,” an Eastern Conference scout said. A Western scout added that veteran guard Marcus Smart, also injured, “has to be healthy. They can’t lose another starter.”
James had embraced a reduced, “third-star” role before the injuries, but insiders now anticipate heavy on-ball duty for the league’s oldest active player. One Western executive doubted the approach, warning that Houston’s defense “will just swallow them up.”
Boston’s depth under the microscope
The Celtics lost Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Jrue Holiday last summer, but coach Joe Mazzulla has leaned on young reserves Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman and Hugo Gonzalez. “They minimize weaknesses and create so many threes,” an East scout said.
Boston’s bench, however, could face playoff adversity for the first time. “There’s going to be a bad quarter in the second round where their young guys show their age,” an Eastern executive predicted. At center, Most Improved Player candidate Neemias Queta will encounter matchups with Detroit’s Jalen Duren, Cleveland’s Jarrett Allen and New York’s Karl-Anthony Towns or Mitchell Robinson. “Can you survive with Queta, Luka Garza and Nikola Vucevic?” a Western assistant asked. “I still think they’re the team to beat.”
Cleveland’s sliding defense raises alarms
Since the All-Star break, the Cavaliers rank 17th in defensive efficiency and have allowed opponents to shoot 42 percent on corner threes. James Harden’s arrival has lifted the offense—Cleveland is 19-6 when he plays—but scouts question the backcourt’s defense. “Harden and Donovan Mitchell get torched out there,” an East scout said.
The return of Jarrett Allen (knee) could stabilize the interior, yet wing defense remains thin. “Strus and Wade aren’t good enough, and Keon Ellis is too small,” another scout noted. Harden’s free-throw rate has dipped to 5.8 attempts per game with Cleveland, down from 8.5 in Los Angeles, adding further concern.
Pistons weigh Jalen Duren’s ceiling as second option
Top-seeded Detroit relies on MVP candidate Cade Cunningham and first-time All-Star center Jalen Duren. After Cunningham missed time with a collapsed lung, coach J.B. Bickerstaff ran more offense through Duren, whose assists jumped to four per game over a nine-game span.
“I’m terrified to give him his max this summer, but the dude is a beast,” a Western executive said. Still, observers wonder whether a center can serve as Detroit’s full-time secondary creator deep into May and June.
Spurs’ post-break three-point barrage on trial
Opponents initially clogged the paint against Victor Wembanyama, daring San Antonio’s shooters. Over the first 50 games the Spurs ranked 17th in makes and 22nd in percentage from deep. Since the All-Star break they are hitting better than 38 percent—third in the league—while averaging 14.9 made threes.
Playoff skepticism persists. Saturday’s loss to Denver saw Keldon Johnson, De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle combine to miss all 16 attempts from beyond the arc. “Young guys in the playoffs is a totally different animal,” a Western assistant said.
Warriors’ path hinges on road wins and corner threes
Golden State must win two play-in games away from Chase Center, a scenario most insiders view as unlikely. A Western scout questioned whether Stephen Curry can replicate his home-court magic in hostile arenas: “I’m not sure they even win the 9-10 game.”
Defensively, the Warriors have surrendered a league-worst 46 percent on corner threes since the break, including 57 percent from the right corner, and opponents are shooting 71 percent in the restricted area—fifth worst. Injuries to Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody and others further cloud their chances.
The first round begins Saturday, when many of these questions will start to receive definitive answers.
Source: ESPN
