Giannis, LeBron and a Deep Free-Agent Class Set the Stage for a Turbulent NBA Summer
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The NBA’s 2026 offseason already has several pivotal plotlines. Decisions by Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James headline a list of issues that could reshape rosters and competitive balance across the league.
Antetokounmpo’s Future Drives Milwaukee’s Plans
Giannis Antetokounmpo reiterated during All-Star Weekend that his preference is to “win a championship with the Milwaukee Bucks,” but he also acknowledged he might “pivot” if that path disappears. Milwaukee heads to the lottery for the first time since 2016 and will gain a valuable 2026 first-round pick, adding to a stockpile that already includes tradable firsts in 2031 and 2033, plus pick-swap rights in 2031, 2032 and 2033.
The Bucks have nine free agents, including five with player options—Kevin Porter Jr., Gary Trent Jr., Gary Harris, Taurean Prince and Jericho Sims—and are projected to be over the cap. After waiving and stretching Damian Lillard last year, Milwaukee still owes him $20.2 million annually through 2029-30. The club can use the $15.1 million non-taxpayer midlevel, the $5.5 million biannual and minimum exceptions this summer.
Milwaukee explored Antetokounmpo trades before February’s deadline and could revisit talks if no long-term commitment emerges. Teams will have more draft capital after the June draft—Los Angeles could move from one to three available first-rounders, Miami from two to four and New York from none to two—potentially widening the market. Offseason rules also allow 21-man rosters, expanded salary matching and a 7.3% rise in the apron thresholds, factors that may facilitate blockbuster deals.
LeBron James Faces Three Paths
At 41, LeBron James logged the league’s oldest triple-double and said his longevity now hinges on his “love with the process.” The pending free agent can:
- Re-sign with the Los Angeles Lakers (at a pay cut from his current $52.6 million)
- Join another contender, most of which would have only the veteran minimum available
- Retire after 23 NBA seasons
Lakers Juggle Dual Timelines
Since acquiring Luka Doncic in February 2025, Los Angeles has balanced James’ window with Doncic’s prime. The club’s immediate concern is Austin Reaves, expected to decline a $14.9 million option for 2026-27 and seek a long-term deal. His $20.9 million free-agent cap hold leaves the Lakers positioned to create up to $50 million in space—league-high this summer—if they renounce every free agent, including James.
Key Free Agents Beyond the Headliners
Restricted forward Peyton Watson enters the market after Denver chose not to extend him. The Nuggets sit $3.6 million below the second apron and can match any offer. Watson is averaging 17.5 points on 50.4% shooting and 41.7% from three.
Guard Collin Gillespie has outperformed a one-year, $2.3 million deal with Phoenix, highlighted by a 30-point outing on Feb. 3. Early Bird rights allow the Suns to offer up to four years and $66.6 million.
Other notable names include Jalen Duren (restricted), James Harden (player option), Trae Young (player option), Draymond Green (player option), Deandre Ayton (player option), Coby White, Mitchell Robinson and Fred VanVleet (player option).
Draft Order Holds Extra Weight
The 2026 draft is viewed as one of the deepest in recent memory, led by freshmen Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer. Teams such as Utah, Washington and Indiana, each monitoring protections on their own firsts, have a strong incentive to finish low in the standings before the May lottery.
Veteran Extensions Could Reshape 2027 Free Agency
Beginning the day after the NBA Finals, Nikola Jokic, Kawhi Leonard, Karl-Anthony Towns, Draymond Green, Trae Young, LaMelo Ball, Ja Morant, Tyler Herro, Zion Williamson, Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and Domantas Sabonis become eligible for new deals. Donovan Mitchell (July 7), Anthony Edwards (July 8), Jaylen Brown (July 26), Anthony Davis (Aug. 6) and Stephen Curry (Aug. 29) reach their extension windows later in the offseason.
Wembanyama Set for a Max Rookie Extension
On July 6 or later, San Antonio is expected to give Victor Wembanyama a projected five-year, $252 million rookie max extension that could escalate to $303.3 million with All-NBA, Defensive Player of the Year or MVP honors in 2026-27. Houston guard Amen Thompson is a candidate for a similar framework, while Brandon Miller, Ausar Thompson, Cason Wallace, Dereck Lively II and Brandin Podziemski are also extension-eligible.
Golden State Keeps Trade Assets Intact
Warriors general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. said the organization still has “the goods to make deals,” pointing to four tradable first-rounders and multiple swap rights. Contract-matching could be trickier: Stephen Curry is not being moved, Jimmy Butler III is injured and Draymond Green holds a $27.7 million player option for 2026-27. Moses Moody and Brandin Podziemski combine for $18 million in salary ballast, and Kristaps Porzingis could be involved in a sign-and-trade with his consent.
Other Trade Candidates Under Contract
The Clippers could continue their youth movement by listening to offers for Kawhi Leonard, due $50.3 million in 2026-27, his final contract year. The Knicks face second-apron pressure if they re-sign center Mitchell Robinson while already paying Karl-Anthony Towns, Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson at least $33.5 million each. Towns can sign up to four years and $275 million, with a $61 million player option looming in 2027-28.
Memphis has gauged interest in Ja Morant, who has two years left at $42.2 million and $44.9 million. Since June, the Grizzlies have moved Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. for seven future first-rounders.
Thunder Confront the Second Apron
Projected extensions for Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren place Oklahoma City roughly $24 million above the second apron next season, but ownership avoids tax penalties for a sixth straight year. The Thunder hold 13 first-round and 15 second-round picks over the next seven drafts, maintain all 15 players under contract for 2026-27 and stagger salaries so Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s new deal starts in 2027-28. Team options on Isaiah Hartenstein, Lu Dort and Kenrich Williams are among a handful of summer decisions.
With marquee stars weighing extensions, free agents eyeing new deals and draft position more valuable than usual, the league’s 2026 offseason is poised for significant movement.
Source: ESPN
