Thunder Hold Firm as NBA Title Favorites; Nuggets Remain Close, Cavaliers Surge After Harden Deal
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The Oklahoma City Thunder have retained pole position in the 2025-26 NBA championship market at the season’s midpoint, sitting at +130 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Denver Nuggets trail at +450, an improvement for both clubs from preseason marks of +200 and +650, respectively.
Denver generated heavy preseason action and still shares the highest handle percentage at DraftKings (16%) with Oklahoma City. Sportsbook director Johnny Avello acknowledged the Nuggets pose at least a “minor liability” because of that volume, while Caesars Sportsbook NBA lead David Lieberman noted that shorter prices on both favorites have curbed additional exposure.
The Cleveland Cavaliers opened the year tied with Denver at +650, drifted to +3000 after a rough start, and rebounded to +1200 following their early-February acquisition of James Harden. Cleveland won every game with Harden before the All-Star break. Despite trimming the price, bookmakers remain cautious about Harden’s playoff track record. Bettors, however, placed the second-most Finals tickets on Cleveland at BetMGM in February (11.9%) and 30.9% of Eastern Conference money.
The public’s strongest new enthusiasm lies with the conference-leading Detroit Pistons, now +1500 to win the title. DraftKings reports Detroit drawing 19% of East champion wagers, while BetMGM lists the Pistons with 25.3% of February conference tickets and theScore Bet shows 18.6% of Finals handle over roughly the same span.
Traditional big-market picks remain steady: the New York Knicks are +1300 and the Boston Celtics +1500. DraftKings places New York atop the Eastern Conference handle leaderboard and third overall in Finals action behind only Oklahoma City and Denver. Both the Knicks and Celtics rank among BetMGM’s five most-bet teams in February.
MVP Race Mirrors Finals Board
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a clear MVP favorite at ‑210, with Nikola Jokić next at +300, according to DraftKings. The league’s 65-game eligibility rule looms large: Gilgeous-Alexander can miss 10 more contests and remain eligible, while Jokić can afford just one. Luka Dončić (+2000) has a five-game cushion, and Victor Wembanyama (+3500) can sit three.
Lieberman expressed surprise at renewed public support for Jokić after his Jan. 30 return, given the slim margin for error. Longer-odds candidates still attracting interest include Cade Cunningham (+1400) and Jaylen Brown (+5000), though sportsbooks would prefer healthy seasons from the two favorites. “When you look at the two chalks, Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić, we are in good shape,” Avello said.
Source: ESPN
