Success, Failure and Four First-Round Picks: Inside 14 Recent NBA Blockbusters
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NBA teams have spent the past decade packaging unprecedented clusters of first-round draft picks to acquire star talent, but a review of 14 such trades since 2013 shows the strategy has paid off less than half the time.
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst recently noted on the “Hoop Collective” podcast that executives are growing reluctant to surrender “four first-round picks for anybody,” citing the league’s new salary-cap aprons and discouraging past returns. An examination of every trade involving at least four first-round selections or swaps offers a snapshot of why some front offices are rethinking the practice.
2013: Nets land Pierce, Garnett
Brooklyn sent: 2014, 2016 and 2018 first-round picks, 2017 swap
Outcome: Celtics drafted Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum; Nets reached one second round. Verdict: major failure.
2019: Lakers acquire Anthony Davis
Los Angeles sent: Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, rights to No. 4 pick De’Andre Hunter, plus 2022, 2023 swap and 2025 first-round picks
Outcome: Championship in 2020. Verdict: major success.
2019: Clippers secure Paul George
Los Angeles sent: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, five first-round picks, 2025 swap
Outcome: One conference-finals trip; Gilgeous-Alexander became MVP and Finals MVP elsewhere. Verdict: major failure.
2019: Rockets trade for Russell Westbrook
Houston sent: Chris Paul, two first-round picks (2024, 2026) and 2021, 2025 swaps
Outcome: One second-round exit; Westbrook moved after one season. Verdict: minor failure.
2020: Bucks bring in Jrue Holiday
Milwaukee sent: Eric Bledsoe, rights to No. 24 pick R.J. Hampton, 2024 swap, 2025 first, 2026 swap, 2027 first
Outcome: Title in 2021. Verdict: major success.
2021: Nets add James Harden
Brooklyn sent: Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert, Taurean Prince, two first-round picks (2022, 2024), four swaps
Outcome: No Finals appearances; trio of stars dismantled by 2023. Verdict: major failure.
2022: Hawks obtain Dejounte Murray
Atlanta sent: 2023, 2025 and 2027 first-round picks, 2026 swap
Outcome: Two play-in finishes; later traded Murray. Verdict: minor failure.
2022: Timberwolves snag Rudy Gobert
Minnesota sent: Three players, rights to No. 22 pick Walker Kessler, 2023 and 2025 firsts, 2026 swap, 2027 and 2029 firsts
Outcome: Four playoff-series wins in two years, most in franchise history. Verdict: major success.
2022: Cavaliers trade for Donovan Mitchell
Cleveland sent: Lauri Markkanen, Collin Sexton, rights to No. 14 pick Ochai Agbaji, 2025 first, 2026 swap, 2027 first, 2028 swap, 2029 first
Outcome: Mitchell named All-NBA First Team; 64-win season in 2024-25. Verdict: minor success.
2023: Suns acquire Kevin Durant
Phoenix sent: Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder, 2023, 2025 and 2027 firsts, 2028 swap, 2029 first
Outcome: One series win in three seasons. Verdict: major failure.
2023: Suns add Bradley Beal
Phoenix sent: Chris Paul, 2024, 2026, 2028 and 2030 swaps
Outcome: Poor fit led to Beal’s buyout last summer. Verdict: major failure.
2024: Knicks secure Mikal Bridges
New York sent: Bojan Bogdanović, 2025 (own and Bucks) firsts, 2027 first, 2028 swap, 2029 first, 2031 first
Outcome: Too early to judge. Verdict: TBD.
2025: Spurs obtain De’Aaron Fox
San Antonio sent: Tre Jones, 2025 Bulls first (No. 12), protected 2025 Hornets first, 2027 first, 2031 Timberwolves first
Outcome: Fox averaging 21 points for West’s No. 2 seed. Verdict: at least minor success.
2025: Magic add Desmond Bane
Orlando sent: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, 2025 first (No. 16), 2026 swap, 2028 first, 2029 swap, 2030 first
Outcome: Team underperforming; assessment pending. Verdict: TBD.
Overall results
Of the 12 trades with clear outcomes, three were major successes, two minor successes, two minor failures and five major failures. That 42 percent success rate mirrors Stephen Curry’s career three-point percentage, illustrating both the allure and the risk of betting multiple first-round selections on a single star.
Source: ESPN.com
