Midseason forecast: Gilgeous-Alexander tops MVP chase as injuries shake up every award
nba-midseason-award-races-2026
The NBA schedule reaches its halfway point on Thursday when the Atlanta Hawks play their 41st game, and the league’s 65-game eligibility rule is already rewriting the awards picture. Key injuries have sidelined several headliners, opening the door for new faces across the ballot.
All-NBA outlook
First team (projected): Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, Cade Cunningham, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Second team: Anthony Edwards, Kawhi Leonard, Donovan Mitchell, Jamal Murray, Karl-Anthony Towns
Third team: Scottie Barnes, Stephen Curry, Jalen Johnson, Tyrese Maxey, Alperen Sengun
Injuries to Nikola Jokic (hyperextended left knee), Giannis Antetokounmpo (approaching the absence limit) and Victor Wembanyama (calf and knee issues) have cleared space for newcomers. Luka Doncic, after missing first-team honors last season, is back in the mix, while Brunson and Cunningham headline a guard-heavy lineup. Voters may still look for positional balance even though the ballot is now positionless.
Detroit Pistons center Jalen Duren, currently out with a short-term ankle sprain, remains the player with the most at stake financially. An All-NBA nod would make the impending restricted free agent eligible for a 30 percent max contract instead of the typical 25 percent.
Coach of the Year
Favorite: J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit Pistons
In the hunt: Mitch Johnson, San Antonio Spurs
Long shots: Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder; Jordan Ott, Phoenix Suns; Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat
Bickerstaff has guided an unexpectedly dominant Pistons squad to the top of the Eastern Conference. Should Detroit finish first, history suggests the award is his to lose. Simulations, however, still give the New York Knicks a similar chance to claim the East, which could keep Johnson and others in play.
Most Improved Player
Favorite: Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers
Contenders: Keyonte George, Utah Jazz; Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
Long shots: Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons; Ryan Rollins, Milwaukee Bucks
Avdija’s numbers climbed again after last year’s late breakout, but voters may weigh George’s leap from below-replacement production to above-average starter more heavily. Second-year players rarely win the trophy; no sophomore has claimed it since 2006-07.
Sixth Man of the Year
Favorite: Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat
Contenders: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks; Anthony Black, Orlando Magic; Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves; Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets
Long shots: Collin Gillespie, Phoenix Suns; Ajay Mitchell, Oklahoma City Thunder
Alexander-Walker is a co-favorite in betting markets despite starting most nights, a role that could ultimately disqualify him. Jaquez leads all qualified reserves with 16.5 points per game, while Reid and Sheppard combine reliable roles with steady production.
Rookie of the Year
Favorite: Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks
Contenders: Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets; Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans
Long shots: Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies; VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers
Flagg recovered from an early adjustment period at point guard to average 23.5 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists in December while shooting 54 percent, making him the heaviest favorite for any award. Knueppel’s record-breaking three-point pace and Queen’s all-around stat line keep them within striking distance.
Defensive Player of the Year
Favorite: Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
Contenders: Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat; Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Long shots: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors; Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors; Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers; Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets
Advanced metrics crown Wembanyama as the league’s top per-possession defender, but his availability is in doubt. Holmgren anchors the NBA’s best statistical defense and is the safer bet, especially with Wembanyama’s qualification uncertain.
Most Valuable Player
Favorite: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Contender: Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers
Long shots: Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks; Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons; Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets; Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Jokic’s knee injury has derailed his pursuit of a fourth MVP, pushing Gilgeous-Alexander to overwhelming favorite status after leading last season’s voting for much of the year. Doncic owns the second-best odds, but the Lakers’ negative point differential raises questions about their staying power in the West’s top six, a benchmark that may be necessary to challenge the Thunder star.
The award races remain fluid, yet the combination of the 65-game rule and a rash of injuries suggests this season’s honor roll could look markedly different when ballots are cast in April.
Source: ESPN
