With the calendar flipping to 2026, the NBA’s first three months have delivered dramatic swings at the top of both conferences, headline-grabbing investigations and breakout performances from a highly touted rookie class. Here is an updated look at what has happened, where every race stands and the main questions that will shape the stretch run.
The Thunder open fast, then stumble against San Antonio
Oklahoma City, the league’s youngest champion since the 1977 Trail Blazers, roared out to a 24-1 start and briefly flirted with the 73-win pace set by the 2015-16 Warriors. That momentum slowed when Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs beat the Thunder three times in 12 days — once in the NBA Cup semifinals at Las Vegas, once in San Antonio and once in Oklahoma City. Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander conceded on Christmas Day that he could not claim the Thunder are better than San Antonio after the skid. The Western playoff field now features five teams with legitimate title hopes: Thunder, Spurs, Nuggets, Rockets and Timberwolves.
Pistons headline an Eastern youth movement
Just two seasons removed from setting the league record for consecutive losses, Detroit sits atop the East at 24-8 behind MVP candidate Cade Cunningham (24), interior anchor Jalen Duren (22) and elite wing defender Ausar Thompson (22). The group owns the NBA’s No. 2 defense and the league’s best clutch record. New York, however, trails by only 2.5 games and projects as the slight favorite for the conference’s No. 1 seed in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) simulations.
Rookie class delivers immediate impact
No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg has electrified Dallas, becoming the youngest player ever to score 40 points in an NBA game. Charlotte’s Kon Knueppel set the mark as the fastest to 100 made three-pointers, while Dylan Harper (Spurs), VJ Edgecombe (76ers), Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears (Pelicans) and Cedric Coward (Grizzlies) are already in key rotations. Ryan Kalkbrenner, drafted in the second round, is auditioning as Charlotte’s long-term starting center.
Mavericks’ turbulent year
The past 12 months in Dallas have included the surprise Luka Doncic trade to the Lakers, Kyrie Irving’s ACL tear, the draft-night addition of Flagg and the early-season dismissal of general manager Nico Harrison after a slow start. Despite the upheaval, Flagg’s two-way promise has given the Mavericks a new cornerstone.
Clippers face investigations and on-court slide
Projected as a top-six West seed entering the season, Los Angeles is 10-21 and under NBA investigation for alleged salary-cap circumvention tied to a Kawhi Leonard sponsorship deal. The club also cut ties with veteran guard Chris Paul in December and recently lost Ivica Zubac to an ankle injury. The franchise’s unprotected 2026 first-round pick still belongs to Oklahoma City from the 2019 Paul George trade.
Federal gambling probe shakes two franchises
Indictments related to illegal sports betting and poker games led Portland coach Chauncey Billups and Miami guard Terry Rozier to be placed on indefinite leave. Former player Damon Jones was also charged. Assistant Tiago Splitter is serving as Portland’s interim coach. Miami’s front office is awaiting league decisions on whether it will receive relief for the 2024 first-round pick it surrendered for Rozier and whether the guard can be traded.
Five pressing questions
- Can Oklahoma City still chase 70 wins? At 27-5, the Thunder would need to finish 43-7 to reach the milestone.
- Is this LeBron James’ final season? The 40-year-old is in the last year of his contract, has not pursued an extension and has openly discussed life beyond basketball.
- Are the Pistons legitimate contenders? Detroit owns an elite defense but ranks in the bottom third in three-point shooting.
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be moved? Milwaukee is 11th in the East, and the two-time MVP has missed 12 games; discussions about his future reportedly began on Dec. 3.
- What is next for the Clippers? With Oklahoma City controlling future first-round picks, a full rebuild is unlikely. LA is expected to seek roster upgrades around Leonard and James Harden before the deadline.
Standings projections
BPI gives New York a 61 percent probability of finishing first in the East and Detroit a 33 percent chance. In the West, Houston’s favorable remaining schedule produces a 40 percent likelihood of securing the No. 2 seed, ahead of Denver (35 percent) and San Antonio (20 percent). Cleveland and Golden State are both trending toward the play-in tournament.
Top trade candidates
The marquee names generating deadline chatter are Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Jonathan Kuminga, Zion Williamson and Kristaps Porzingis. Milwaukee owns one tradable first-round pick (2031 or 2032) and has explored deals for Myles Turner, Bobby Portis and Kyle Kuzma. Dallas must decide whether recent improvement and a possible Kyrie Irving return are enough to halt Davis discussions. Kuminga becomes eligible to be moved on Jan. 15 after signing a two-year, $46.5 million extension.
Projected All-Star rosters under the new three-team format
East locks: Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown, Jalen Brunson, Cunningham, Duren, Jalen Johnson, Tyrese Maxey, Donovan Mitchell, Karl-Anthony Towns.
West locks: Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, Anthony Edwards, Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, Alperen Sengun, Wembanyama.
International team: final composition hinges on whether Towns is slotted as American or international, leaving potential commissioner picks for Devin Booker or Julius Randle.
Early award leaders
MVP: 1) Jokic, 2) Gilgeous-Alexander, 3) Cunningham, 4) Doncic, 5) Brunson.
Rookie of the Year: 1) Flagg, 2) Knueppel, 3) Queen.
Defensive Player: 1) Wembanyama, 2) Chet Holmgren, 3) Amen Thompson.
Most Improved: 1) Jalen Johnson, 2) Deni Avdija, 3) Neemias Queta.
All-NBA forecast
Early first-team picks are Cunningham, Doncic, Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic and Donovan Mitchell, with eligibility concerns looming for players who miss at least 17 games.
Draft lottery race
BPI projects a crowded battle for the bottom as teams eye a 2026 class headlined by AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer and injured guard Darryn Peterson. The model predicts slight improvement from the Clippers — beneficial for rivals since Oklahoma City owns LA’s unprotected 2026 first-round pick.
The regular season resumes this week with 50 games remaining for most clubs and no shortage of intrigue across the league.
Source: ESPN.com
