TITLE: Five-Part Formula Emerging for Teams Hoping to Hand the Thunder a Rare Defeat
SLUG: blueprint-to-beat-oklahoma-city-thunder
CONTENT:
The San Antonio Spurs’ 111-109 comeback victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder in Saturday’s NBA Cup semifinal offered the clearest recent roadmap for challenging the league’s defending champions. Oklahoma City arrived in Las Vegas riding a 16-game winning streak and a 24-1 record—tied with the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors for the best start ever—yet left with its second loss of the season and a reminder that an upset is possible.
An examination of the Spurs’ win and the Thunder’s 23 other losses since the start of the 2024-25 campaign highlights five statistical benchmarks that have most often led to Oklahoma City setbacks.
1. Protect the Paint
Opponents almost always need to hold the Thunder below 55 percent on two-point attempts. Oklahoma City is hitting 58.5 percent inside the arc this season, third in the NBA. In Saturday’s matchup, San Antonio—bolstered by Victor Wembanyama’s rim protection—limited the Thunder to 33 percent on twos while he was on the floor. Earlier, Portland kept Oklahoma City to 43 percent inside the arc by pairing rookie center Donovan Clingan with veteran guard Jrue Holiday.
2. Control the Offensive Glass
Keeping the Thunder under a 30 percent offensive-rebound rate is critical. Oklahoma City ranks 28th in offensive rebounding, yet loses almost never when topping that threshold. The lone exception over the past two seasons was a January defeat to Golden State when the Thunder shot just 40 percent overall.
3. Catch Fire from Three
Shooting at least 37 percent from long range dramatically improves an opponent’s odds. Despite that, Oklahoma City still wins 72 percent of such games—illustrating the challenge. Portland followed this script in November by sinking 19 threes at a 44 percent clip; the Spurs won despite making only 31 percent from deep, aided by the Thunder’s own 24 percent showing.
4. Value Every Possession
Teams that limit turnovers to below 15 percent of plays lessen the Thunder’s potent transition game. San Antonio finished at 15.4 percent Saturday, while Portland posted a 14 percent turnover rate in its earlier triumph. Across the last two years, Oklahoma City has dropped just one contest when it forced turnovers at a top-24 season level—Indiana’s Game 1 comeback in last season’s NBA Finals.
5. Survive the Clutch
Even when opponents hit the first four targets, late-game fortune often decides the outcome. Nine teams have achieved all four benchmarks in the past two seasons and emerged only 6-3, with two Thunder losses coming by two points. Oklahoma City remains two baskets away from a winning record in games where foes meet every condition.
Looking ahead, only three clubs currently average all four marks over the full season: the Thunder themselves, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the New York Knicks—both potential playoff hurdles. Minnesota split last season’s regular-season series and recorded a 42-point blowout in last year’s conference finals, while New York will not face Oklahoma City until a March home-and-home that could preview June’s Finals.
Oklahoma City is tracking toward 70-plus wins, so clearing this five-step checklist remains a tall order. Still, the Spurs and Trail Blazers have shown that executing—even partially—gives contenders at least a fighting chance against the league’s most dominant team.
Source: ESPN
